Andrew Painter didn't ultimately factor into the plans for the Phillies in 2025. (Cheryl Pursell)
PHILADELPHIA — "July-ish" was one of the most used phrases around the Phillies this year, with president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski saying as far back as Day 1 of Spring Training that's when No. 1 prospect Andrew Painter could be promoted to the majors.
"I've said all along July-ish. I don't know if that means June or August. And again, he has to perform, and he has to stay healthy," Dombrowski said in Clearwater on Feb. 12. "And hopefully we have five really good starting pitchers at that point that make it difficult for him to break into it at that time. So you only wait to see what happens. But that's when I think we'll turn him loose more."
As it turned out, Aaron Nola was limited by a right ankle sprain and a stress fracture in his right ribcage to just 17 starts this season. Zack Wheeler didn't pitch again after a blood clot in his right upper extremity was discovered in mid-August, eventually having both that removed and thoracic outlet decompression surgery.
There was a window for Painter to force the hands of the Phillies. But it didn't happen, as inconsistent control led to him posting a 5.40 ERA in 22 starts for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. That's not the end of the world, as both Rob Thomson and Garrett Stubbs have since pointed out that staying healthy was the top goal for Painter this year, and he achieved that. It's also not uncommon for pitchers to take multiple years to regain their control when coming off of TJS.
However, when July came and went without a promotion of Painter, it did give off the impression that he had disappointed, even with all the qualifiers Dombrowski gave in Spring Training.
While Tuesday's media session at Citizens Bank Park mostly had to do with the upcoming NLDS, the conversation did drift to Painter, and Dombrowski was asked whether he regretted putting the "July-ish" label out into the world.
"If you read and you look back, I said he would be ABLE to join. I didn't say he was GOING TO join," Dombrowski said emphatically. "Those are significant, and some people have written it differently than others. But if you go back and even look, [that's what I said.]
"And he was ready to join. So no, not at all," Dombrowski continued. "Because he was ready to join, and that's what we were looking to do. ... It was told to him in the very beginning behind the scenes, 'Just remember, you still gotta perform, there's gotta be a spot.' So all that was very clear to him, but I think others took it and ran with it that he was coming up then. But that was never said that he was coming. He was capable of coming, [those are] significantly different."
Dave Dombrowski clarified Andrew Painter’s “July-ish” timeline to @TimKellySports:
“I said he would be ABLE to join, I didn’t say he was GOING to join.”
(via @GraceDelPizzo) pic.twitter.com/X5aeggH0ak
It is correct that Dombrowski never guaranteed Painter would come up by July. Although if you watch him discuss Painter during Spring Training in the video embedded earlier in the article, you do get the sense that there was an expectation that Painter would join the Phillies over the summer. Putting any potential arrival date out there gave the fanbase a target date and forced Thomson to answer constant questions about that timeline.
Looking back, the best strategy probably would have been for the Phillies to acknowledge excitement and hope about Painter in 2025, while consistently reminding the world that it can take time to get back to 100% from this procedure. Putting a date, even with caveats, didn't do any favors to Painter.
Ultimately, Painter is still only 22 years old. Even if some goalposts were moved regarding him this year, it is true that it can take time after Tommy John to get your control back. And come next July, Painter may very well be a key contributor for the Phillies.
"I think Andrew had a solid year," Dombrowski said Tuesday. "I mean, he went out there every five days, basically all year long. He pitched over 100 innings. [He] felt good at the end of the year. His stuff was still good. His command wasn't quite as good.
"So we thought it was a very solid season for him," Dombrowski added. "And we think he'll come to camp next year and be in position where he can compete for a spot. So that's a really encouraging type of scenario for him."
