Union players, from left, Tai Baribo, Milan Iloski, Bruno Damiani and Quinn Sullivan celebrate after Damiani’s goal against FC Cincinnati on Aug. 30. (Courtesy Philadelphia Union) Courtesy Philadelphia Union
The calendar turned on 2025 with minimal expectations for the Philadelphia Union.
In 2024, the club missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017, ending the decade-long coaching tenure of Jim Curtin. Bradley Carnell took over, a pivot toward youth was expected and the expectations of a quick turnaround were modest.
But September arrived, and the Union were still alive in three competitions. October could dawn with the Union in first place in MLS, perhaps two wins from claiming the Supporters’ Shield.
For an organization in its 16th season with a single trophy in the cabinet, the question is what constitutes success in 2025? And in more dire terms, can the Union’s collective psyche handle another trophy near-miss in a campaign that has already exceeded any reasonable preseason expectations?
Hopes of a trophy changed rapidly. Little was expected from the Union, perhaps a transitional year away from the remnants of the core that reached MLS Cup final in 2022 and toward a younger Homegrown group.
Instead, 2024 has proven to be the blip. The Union won their first three games and rose toward the top of the Eastern Conference with an unbeaten run of 11 matches from April to June, including nine in all competitions in a torturous May.
They’ve resisted every urge to come back to earth. Losses at Columbus and Nashville in late June and early July proved they weren’t as good as those teams … until a run of five unbeaten followed. Surely a trip to Cincinnati would humble them? Nope, a 1-0 win on Aug. 30 despite being down a man for 30 minutes. A 7-0 loss in Vancouver then an ouster in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals would do the trick. Not yet, with the Union rebounding to beat New England last week.
Counter-pressing teams traditionally fade late in seasons, the logic goes. Carnell’s expansion St. Louis City team in 2023 exceeded all expectations by finishing first in the Western Conference before bowing out in the first round of the playoffs. So it was a matter of time for his bunch this year. Only the time hasn’t yet come.
Now the Union can heap pressure on the chasers by beating an eliminated D.C. United Saturday night before difficult games at home to New York City FC and at Charlotte to finish the season.
The Union don’t have absolute control of their Shield destiny. They are first in points (60, ahead of Cincinnati’s 58 and San Diego’s 57) and first in points per game (1.94). They can max out at 69 points by winning out. That’s one more than Vancouver, who has 56 points and four games left, thanks to its draw against Portland on Wednesday. It’s two more than Cincinnati and three more than San Diego, both with three matches left.
But Inter Miami, which has five games remaining, can hit 70 if it wins out. A visit to Toronto, home games against Chicago, New England and Atlanta before a Decision Day trip to Nashville are all winnable. But Lionel Messi and friends would have to do it with seven games in 22 days on aged if immaculately gifted legs.
Miami won the Shield with 74 points last year. Cincinnati had 69 in 2024, and LAFC 67 in 2023. The Union averaged 2.04 ppg in winning the Shield in COVID-shortened 2020, which is 69.4 points over 34 games.
The larger question is the Union’s history of being the nearly-there club, psychic trauma that is not Carnell’s to shoulder. But when trophies are on the line, the Union have not come through.
The loss to Nashville in the Open Cup semifinal is the ninth time they’ve fallen short in the last 10 semifinals or finals of major competitions, dating to the 2019 U.S. Open Cup final. The only victory was the Eastern Conference final in 2022, which set up defeat in penalty kicks in MLS Cup final against LAFC.
In the last six seasons, they’ve lost in two Leagues Cup semifinals, two two-leg CONCACAF Champions League semifinals (total record: 0-3-1), the COVID-impacted Eastern Conference Final in 2021 and the MLS Is Back semifinal in 2020. That number doesn’t include two of the three U.S. Open Cup finals the club has lost on home ground.
The history doesn’t weigh on the current group. But Carnell is also on guard about his team being satisfied by merely exceeding expectations.
“Were we a top-one team, on the 5th of January? Not sure,” he said before last week’s New England game. “Did we grow into a top-one team over the nine months? Yes, this team grew, and first had a chip on their shoulders, but then took on the ownership of embracing that role. So, in my eyes, we just have to play free and enjoy the last games. And we'll tally up the points where we are at the end.”
Carnell has pushed his team to play like the ones to beat. They’ve earned that status by summarily punishing teams below them on the table: Against teams placed ninth of worse in their conferences entering play this weekend, the Union are 11-1-3, 36 points out of a possible 45.
The MLS Cup playoffs await once the Shield race is resolved. As the No. 1 seed, they’d have a best-of-3 series against the Wild Card (8 vs. 9) winner, then one-game conference semifinals and a final that they’d host. But they’re a more pedestrian 5-4-1 against teams sitting second to seventh in the East, one of which employs Lionel Messi. The Shield is the most attainable trophy for the Union this year.
Carnell has said repeatedly that this is a special group and a special season, one that has certainly revitalized his career from his 2023 Coach of the Year candidacy to his firing last summer by St. Louis City. The year-to-year variability of MLS means there’s no obvious championship window opening or shutting for the Union.
So the urgency is all about opportunity. If the season ends short of a trophy, it could be one of the bitterest pills to swallow for a club that’s grown accustomed to the feeling.
“From not knowing in the beginning of the season where it's going to go and how it's going to end, just to see the confidence, the swagger and the sort of positivity of this group, growing every single day and sticking together,” Carnell said last week. “It's a season for me already to cherish, but we want to make sure that these memories last for years to come.”
There’s only one way to do that, and it involves a trophy.
