Aug 28, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) hits a three-run home run against the Atlanta Braves in the seventh inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
The Phillies will likely extend two qualifying offers this offseason, with one going to Kyle Schwarber and the other to Ranger Suárez. We now have a pretty good idea of what that offer will look like.
Joel Sherman of The New York Post says that the QO value will be close to $22 million this offseason:
The Post has learned that the qualifying offer for the 2026 season will be roughly $22 million.
That is a working number for teams, but not the exact figure. MLB and the Players Association verify that a figure after the season will likely come in slightly lower than $22 million.
The number that The Post has learned at this time of year the past two seasons has been within $175,000 of the final figure and provides teams a number with which to strategize before it is made official.
For reference, the qualifying offer value a year ago was $21.05 million, so this would represent an increase of nearly $1 million. As Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors noted, the "value of the QO is determined by calculating the mean salary of the league’s 125 highest-paid players." So all potential free agents can thank Juan Soto and a few at the top for helping to bring that number up this year.
Schwarber — who has clubbed 53 home runs in a career-year — will certainly receive a QO from the Phillies. He will also certainly decline the one-year deal in the neighborhood of $22 million and test free agency if he and the Phillies haven't worked out a long-term deal in the meantime. For what it's worth, the prevailing perspective in the sport seems to be that the Phillies will retain Schwarber, who has become a franchise icon.
The prevailing perspective around baseball seems to be that the #Phillies will re-sign Kyle Schwarber
[image or embed]— Tim Kelly (@timkellysports.bsky.social) September 17, 2025 at 9:39 AM
Given that Suárez has a 2.84 ERA over 24 starts this season, he's pretty certain to get a QO as well. He might not be quite as much of a lock as Schwarber to decline it, but that still seems to be overwhelmingly likely. Suárez hired Scott Boras to be his agent last December, so he'll likely go to the highest bidder on the open market.
Exactly how the Phillies and pitching-needy teams will view Suárez as a free agent is unclear. In parts of eight seasons, he has a 3.31 ERA. He's shown an ability to be a weapon both as a starter and reliever in the playoffs, with a 1.43 career postseason ERA across 37 2/3 innings. Suárez is a gamer. But he's also had an injured list stint for a back-related ailment in three out of four years, and his average fastball velocity has declined from 93.4 mph in 2023 to 91.3 mph in 2025. These will all be considerations when the 30-year-old seeks five years, give or take, as a free agent.
It should be noted that just because a player declines a qualifying offer doesn't mean they can't ultimately return to the team after testing free agency. Both J.T. Realmuto (2020) and Aaron Nola (2023) declined QOs from the Phillies, saw what the open market had to offer and re-signed with the Phillies. If anything, the Phillies would have an advantage in re-signing both Schwarber and Suárez if they declined the QOs, because any other team would have to surrender draft-pick compensation to sign them in free agency.
However, because the Phillies are competitive balance tax payers, they would only receive a 2026 draft pick after the fourth round if one of their qualified free agents signed elsewhere. That's much less than if a revenue sharing recipient — such as the Pittsburgh Pirates or Milwaukee Brewers — lost a free agent who declined a QO and ultimately signed for $50 million or more elsewhere. Those teams would recoup a compensatory selection after the first round of the 2026 MLB Draft.
Also, if you're curious, the aforementioned Realmuto and Harrison Bader won't be eligible to get a QO offer from the Phillies. The Phillies already gave Realmuto a QO five years ago, and a player can only be saddled with it once in their career. Bader was traded during the season, and teams can only give a QO to players who spent the entire year before free agency on their team.
