Oct 6, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper (3) looks on at the start of the ninth inning during game two of the NLDS round against the Los Angeles Dodgers for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
PHILADELPHIA — When looking at a baseball player's stat line, how you should feel when you read it is relative to the actual player.
In other words, what's good from one player may not be good for another.
Take, for example, the following slash line and some counting and fancy stats.
.261/.357/.487, 27 HR, 75 RBI, .844 OPS, 129 OPS+, 3.2 bWAR
For most people, this would be a very good season. A 3-plus bWAR season is a borderline All-Star.
But for Bryce Harper, this was a disappointment.
That's because for Harper's career, he's been even better than those numbers.
Consider, in the 13 seasons prior to 2025, Harper was, on average, better in every category:
.281/.389/.522, 26HR, 75RBI, .911 OPS, 143 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR
(Note: The counting stats - homers and RBIs - have lower averages because of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season in which Harper had 13 homers and 33 RBIs in 60 games).
To be fair to Harper, he missed a month of the season with a wrist injury, but on Thursday, at his annual end of season post mortem press conference, President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski said Harper was 100 percent at the end of the season and not feeling any effects of the wrist injury.
So was it a down season? Or is Harper, who also turned 33 on Thursday, reaching the point of his career where he is starting to decline?
By his own standards, Bryce Harper had a down season. Will that become a trend? Dave Dombrowski says it’s up to Harper.
“I guess we will find out if he becomes elite, or if he continues to be good.”
(via @GraceDelPizzo) pic.twitter.com/8hjsp5yJRC
"I guess we'll find out if he becomes elite (again) or he continues to be good," Dombrowski said of Harper. "Can he rise to the next level? I don't really know the answer. He's the one that will dictate that more than anything else.
"I don't think he's content with the year that he had. It wasn't a bad year, but when I think of Bryce Harper, you think elite. You think one of the top 10 players in baseball. I don't think he fit into that category. Very good player, but I have no idea. I've seen guys his age ... level off, and I've seen guys rise again. We'll see what happens."
It was definitely a weird year for Harper. He never really seemed himself. He battled with thee wrist injury early, but came back. He peaked in July during a stretch of games where he reminded us verbally - on more than one occasion - that he was one of the best players in baseball.
But that was a short-lived run for Harper. He mostly fell back into the "good-not-great" category of baseball production the rest of the season.
Harper never publicly seemed disenchanted with his season, and he was always even-keeled when he spoke, (except to Rob Manfred), but he was a bit more mercurial than he had been in the past.
And something just always seemed to be a little bit different. Nothing that you could firmly put your finger on, but different enough to recognize it, even if it wasn't palpable.
But it was the first season since he arrived in Philadelphia, and possibly his entire career, where he wasn't being viewed as the team's best player.
Kyle Schwarber had a career year and will probably be the runner-up for N.L. MVP. Trea Turner won a batting title and will probably garner down-ballot MVP votes as well. Cristopher Sanchez emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball.
And then there was Harper, on the next tier down. Still incredibly valuable. Still an All-Star caliber, but not in the MVP conversation.
Dombrowski compared him to Freddie Freeman.
"Freddie Freeman is a really good player," Dombrowski said. "He's still a good player. Is he elite like he was before? Probably not to the same extent. That's nothing against Freddy. He's a tremendous player and that, to me, is Bryce."
It's a fair comparison, but not a completely level one.
Freeman is a few years older that Harper. In his age 32 season (2022), Freeman finished fourth in MVP voting. He followed that up finishing third a season later.
Even in 2025, at 36-years-old, Freeman put up better season-long numbers than Harper.
If Harper can replicate Freeman, then Philadelphia has nothing to worry about, and 2025 will just be chalked up as a shoulder shrug season in an otherwise Hall of Fame career.
But what if he can't? What if this is the beginning of the career decline? What if the next six seasons are no where close to the first six and 2025 is the fulcrum?
Phillies fans will collectively shudder just thinking that way.
But there is at least one person who is not.
Rob Thomson on Bryce Harper:
“I think he’s highly motivated to have the best season of his career next year.”
(Via @TimKellySports) pic.twitter.com/bzGkNTrHEi
Phillies manager Rob Thomson believes he knows Harper well enough to know that having a "down year" will be a major motivator for him, and the manager believes the old Harper will be back in 2026.
"I think he's highly motivated to have the best season of his career next year," Thomson said. "He hasn't told me this, but that type of person, I've seen it before, when they have bad years, they go like gangbusters in the offseason to get better. They want to get back to where they normally are at. And I think that's just Harp's mindset. I think that's what he's going to do."
There will be some changes with the Phillies this offseason. The team that shows up in Clearwater in four months will have a different look and feel.
For the team to once again be in the mix for World Series title, Harper needs to have a different look and feel as well.
