Apr 20, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh (16) reacts with outfielder Nick Castellanos (8) against the Chicago White Sox in the fifth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports Kyle Ross
Tim Kelly and Anthony SanFilippo answer your Phillies questions during the latest On Pattison Mailbag.
@Missdmh801 on X: I hope we can bring back Schwarber and Bader. What do you think our outfield looks like on Opening Day?
Tim Kelly: I definitely think that Bader will decline his half of a $10 million mutual option, because not only will he get a $3 million buyout, but he can get at least $10 million annually on a multi-year deal.
If you made me guess, that will come elsewhere, because he is a 31-year-old coming off a career that does have an injury history. But I definitely get the desire to bring him back. He was a tremendous spark, and has always been a great fielder even when his offensive production has fluctuated.
I feel much more confident Nick Castellanos will be elsewhere next year, and am unsure about Brandon Marsh's future, although he's only projected to make $4.5 million in his penultimate year of arbitration eligibility.
My early predictions is that it will be Justin Crawford in center field, Marsh in one corner and then a third veteran outfielder with Otto Kemp and/or Weston Wilson on the bench. I kind of doubt that Max Kepler will be coming back, but another veteran of that ilk like Rob Refsnyder, Mike Yastrzemski, Jesse Winker, Cedric Mullins or Miguel Andujar on a one-year deal would make sense.
Harrison Bader heads into offseason of uncertainty after career-year 🎁
— Tim Kelly (@timkellysports.bsky.social) October 11, 2025 at 3:30 PM
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Anthony SanFilippo: The Phillies need to completely reimagine their outfield, and even if you go the route of Crawford in left, a cheap free agent in center and Marsh in right, it's still underwhelming.
You don't know how effective Crawford is going to be, so you need to hedge your bets by landing a more sure thing at one of the other positions. The problem is, most of the useful free agent outfielders are left-handed - Kyle Tucker in right field and Cody Bellinger or Trent Grisham in center field.
You can sign one of them and then do a platoon in right/center with Marsh and another right-handed outfielder. You may have to trade for that player, though, because aside from Refsnyder and Andujar, who are both left fielders, there's not a righty that you look at and go, "Yeah, give me him."
Bader would be a nice piece for a full season, but I feel like the Phillies have to re-mold the roster in such a way that swimming in his free-agent waters doesn't make sense, because he's going to get paid based off how he hit for the Phillies combined with his always excellent outfield defense.
@ArcainiLuke on X: Would you rather sign Kyle Schwarber for five years, or J.T. Realmuto for four years?
Tim Kelly: This one is easy to me: Schwarber for five years. I'd probably rather sign Schwarber for five years than Realmuto for three, just because Schwarber is a DH that will play next season at 33, while Realmuto is a catcher that will be 35 in 2025.
Catcher is obviously a harder position to replace than DH, but Schwarber hit 44 more home runs than Realmuto in 2025. There's a real chance they are both back, but that's where I stand on it.
Anthony SanFilippo: Doing research for a future story, Luke?
My answer is neither. If it comes down to choosing either one of those contracts or go in a different direction, I go in a different direction.
I understand the desire to bring both guys back, and while I would prefer three years for Schwarber and two years for Realmuto, I could probably be coerced into four and three, respectively.
But once the term becomes well beyond what their expected usefulness would be, then I say the juice isn't worth the squeeze and John Middleton's millions would be better spent elsewhere.
Schwarber at 4 years, $120 million would reach the limit of my comfort level. Ditto Realmuto at 3 years, $60 million. Anything significantly more than that, I'd say, "Thank you for all you've done for the Phillies," and move on.
@Donnacwrites on Threads: If you could move one big contract, who would you shuffle off the roster?
Tim Kelly: I'm not going to BS people here. I have no clue where the idea of trading Bryce Harper or Trea Turner happened, but both are on massive contracts with no-trade clauses and are approaching their mid-30s. I see no scenario where either is moved. Same with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
I would qualify Castellanos as a big contract since he's still due $20 million next season, and I don't expect he'll be back in 2026. But I think the Phillies will probably have to eat 75% of the $20 million for 2026, so it's not exactly like they are going to be opening a ton of money up with that.
MLB Trade Rumors projected that Alec Bohm will make $10.3 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility. That's not a big contract, but in an offseason where Schwarber, Realmuto, Bader and Ranger Suárez are all free agents, that money could be allocated elsewhere if he's traded.
Anthony SanFilippo: I'll tell everyone where it came from, Tim, that way if someone wants to yell at someone for criticizing, they can yell at me.
It started over the weekend on WIP radio in a conversation between Ruben Amaro and Devan Kaney. The thing is, Ruben was coyly suggesting, without naming names, that the Phillies could try to move a big contract. The speculation ran rampant from there.
Look, it was a weird year for Harper. He had a good, not great season. He dealt with an injury. He went from being the Phillies superstar to further down the pecking order. He seemed melancholy at times. It wasn't the same old Bryce.
So, sure, I can see why someone would think, "Hey, that's a creative idea." Hell, even Dave Dombrowski has said in the past, "I would trade one Miguel Cabrera for two Miguel Cabreras," meaning everyone has a price.
That said, Harper has a no-trade clause in his contract. He's not going anywhere anytime soon. So, it's purely just a conversation piece to suggest he would be traded. It's slightly smaller scale with Turner or Nola, but they, too, are safe. Castellanos is the biggest contract that could potentially be traded, if he's not released outright.
Aside from that, the big-money guys are going to be the big-money guys next season, too.
@ChrisFried78 on X: Are Crawford and Miller on the roster in 2026 or will they be used as trade bait this offseason?
Tim Kelly: I think Crawford will be playing regularly in center and/or left field early in 2026, if not Opening Day.
Aidan Miller had a .912 second-half OPS in a year he spent mostly with Double-A Reading, but did get to Triple-A Lehigh Valley late in the season. Miller has a really interesting offensive profile, as he drew 82 walks and stole 59 bases this past year as well.
If the Phillies move on from Bohm this offseason and go with some sort of stopgap at third base to open the season — like Kemp, Edmundo Sosa and a veteran — then perhaps they reevaluate things around the trade deadline. Do they need to trade for a veteran, or is Miller ready to take over at third base? Also, do the Phillies play Miller at third base at all in Spring Training/the minors in anticipation of him potentially shifting there with Trea Turner having made significant defensive improvements at shortstop?
Here's how much the Phillies' 9 arbitration-eligible players are projected to make in 2026
— Tim Kelly (@timkellysports.bsky.social) October 13, 2025 at 11:00 AM
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Anthony SanFilippo: They won't all be on the Opening Day roster, but Crawford, Miller and Andrew Painter will all play for the Phillies finally in 2026.
These guys are all top prospects in the sport for a reason. It's not just the Phillies who are pumping their tires, but rival evaluators really like them too.
As rough of a season as Painter had coming off Tommy John Surgery, there's a reason at the deadline everyone was still asking for him. The entire sport sees his talent. It's just a matter of when will it manifest at the Big League level?
Same can be said for Crawford and Miller.
Here's a prediction for you, one of them is a significant contributor in 2026. Which one? I don't know. But one will be a key cog as soon as next year with the others not far behind.
@Flyguys2810: When does Harper’s free pass end?? He hasn’t won shit here or anywhere. He gets a pass no Philly player in any sport has ever got.
Tim Kelly: I've seen quite a bit of criticism for Harper since the Phillies were eliminated in the NLDS, and rightfully so considering he posted just three hits in 15 at-bats.
At the same time, Harper has hit .311 in four postseason runs with the Phillies. He hit arguably the biggest home run in franchise history to send the Phillies to the World Series in 2022. He hasn't won the World Series. That's the only thing missing on his resume. But he's generally been tremendous in the playoffs with the Phillies.
Also, I see people talk all the time about the Washington Nationals winning the World Series the year after he left. That's true, but he left a team that had Turner, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Max Scherzer, a healthy Stephen Strasburg and used the money they saved on him to sign Patrick Corbin. It always seems disingenuous to me when it's framed like him leaving is why the Nationals ultimately got over the hump in 2019, as opposed to them just having an insane collection of stars at their peaks.
The biggest issue for Harper the past few seasons has been staying on the field. It will be interesting to see Thursday when Dombrowski speaks whether Harper's right wrist — which cost him most of the month of June — will require any offseason attention.
Anthony SanFilippo: What Tim said. He also won an MVP here.
Now, if you ask Harper, he'd tell you that he was unhappy with his season.
And yet... He still ranked 22nd out of 146 qualified hitters in the majors in OPS at .844 and his OPS+ of 129 means he was 29% better than the average Big League hitter in 2025.
And all that in a "down season."
He's not getting a pass. He just doesn't deserve that much criticism. You want to say he didn't hit in the playoffs? Fine. Unleash your vitriolic commentary inside that vacuum.
But to suggest he hasn't done his part to try and help the Phillies win in his seven years in Philadelphia is outrageously hyperbolic and flat out wrong.
