Oct 8, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Brandon Marsh (16) and Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm (28) celebrate after the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game three of the NLDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors has released his his annual arbitration projections.
The Phillies have nine arbitration-eligible players. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and company can work out a deal prior to the arbitration deadline in January. If not, the two sides exchange figures and go to arbitration, with the independent panel ultimately deciding whether the player will make the salary that his side or the team has proposed. The panel can't decide on a compromise, they have to pick one of the two.
The other option is that the Phillies can non-tender players, meaning they decide they aren't worth the salary range they are projected to get, and allow them to become a free agent.
With all that context, here's a look at the projections of all nine arbitration-eligible players, and thoughts on who will and won't be back.
There were definitely some valleys in Luzardo's season, but he logged a career-high 183 2/3 innings and was probably better than his 3.92 ERA would lead you to believe.
What's more, Luzardo posted a 2.35 ERA in 7 2/3 postseason innings, striking out eight batters in a workload mixed between starting and relieving.
$10.4 million is more than appropriate for his final year of arbitration eligibility. The bigger question is whether the Phillies will approach the 28-year-old about an extension ahead of his contract year.
Bohm isn't a non-tender candidate, but it is fair to ask — particularly if the Phillies bring back Kyle Schwarber and/or J.T. Realmuto but are hoping to make some lineup changes — if you want to pay him $10.3 million next season.
While he did seem to do a better job of controlling his emotions in 2025, a left shoulder injury limited him to 120 games. His 102 OPS+ was slightly above the league average of 100.
There was a point early last offseason where it appeared more likely than not that Bohm would be traded. No one is saying the Phillies should give him away, but $10.3 million — of thereabouts — would be a pretty significant chunk of cash to clear.
Walking Mookie Betts with the bases loaded in NLDS Game 4 obviously wasn't ideal, but Duran was mostly a tremendous addition after being acquired from the Minnesota Twins.
Relievers are volatile year to year, and consistently throwing 100 mph puts a lot of stress on your elbow, so the Phillies would probably be best to go year to year with Duran. Although if he's willing to consider a multi-season deal that buys out a year of free agency, perhaps it would be wise to consider.
If Duran makes $7.6 million during his penultimate year of arbitration eligibility, that would be great value considering he would get $20+ million annually on the open market.
Stott appeared to trending towards the non-tender discussion when he hit .234 with a .637 OPS prior to the All-Star Break.
However, at the advice of hitting coach Kevin Long, he made some adjustments to his batting stance and revived his career in the second half of the season, hitting .294 with an .855 OPS.
Even if Stott is best utilized on the strong side of a platoon, he hit in the second half of the season, is a tremendous defender at second base and has the ability to slide over to shortstop when need be. He should be back for his first of three arbitration years.
Marsh is a difficult player to figure out what to do with.
On one hand, the bookends of his season were brutal. He hit .095 between March and April. During the four-game NLDS, he was exposed, recording just one hit in 13 at-bats and struggling in center field.
On the other hand, he wound up hitting .280 with a .785 OPS despite the miserable start to the regular season. Marsh is a very good left fielder, and athletically can slide to center field if you need him.
Some of this will depend on others around him. Do the Phillies think Justin Crawford is ready to take over in the outfield on Opening Day, and do they envision him more in center or left field? Will Harrison Bader be re-signed? Does Nick Castellanos get moved?
$4.5 million is a fair price for Marsh to be the strong side of a platoon in either left or right field next season. But he's also someone that would be worth listening on if teams are interested in trading for him with two years remaining before free agency.
Perhaps no one got louder cheers at Citizens Bank Park when the Phillies were introduced prior to NLDS Game 1.
Sosa is a tremendous bench player who provides a spark when he's on the field and is a great clubhouse presence when he's not. He has some limitations that tend to get exposed when he plays more regularly, particularly against righties.
But Sosa is the perfect platoon mate for Stott, and also gives you depth at shortstop and third base. He'll be back for 2026, though it is worth pointing out this will be a contract year.
He didn't wind up having much of a role in the postseason, but you can definitely argue that Banks was the most reliable left-handed arm out of the bullpen for the Phillies this past season.
Across 69 appearances in 2025, Banks posted a 3.07 ERA and 3.64 FIP. Banks will turn 34 later this month, but because he was a late bloomer, is only in his first year of arbitration eligibility, so the Phillies could control him through the 2028 campaign.
Though he hit only .205 in 105 regular-season at-bats, Marchán got rave reviews during his first season as the primary backup for his work ethic, both in preparing himself and starting pitchers.
The switch-hitter will return in 2026, it's just a matter of what his role will be. If J.T. Realmuto is re-signed, even though he'll be in his age-35 season, Marchán will likely have a similar role. If Realmuto isn't back, it's very possible Marchán plays more in 2026, even if he's still the No. 2 catcher.
After serving as the primary backup to Realmuto for three seasons, Stubbs got all of one at-bat at the MLB level for the Phillies in 2025.
Still, the Phillies were better off for him remaining in the organization than they would have been without him. First of all, having a catcher with MLB experience at Triple-A in case of an injury to Realmuto or Marchán is a nice insurance policy. Secondly, Stubbs got to work with Andrew Painter in 2025, and Marsh credited him for helping to turn his season around.
It's clear that Stubbs, 32, is highly respected in the organization. He's not going to come back at this price guaranteed, but non-tendering him and then coming to an agreement like what he played on in 2025 — $450,000 if he's at Lehigh Valley, $925,000 if he's in the majors — could make sense if Stubbs is willing to play a similar role next year. He is out of minor-league options, though.
Whether it's in coaching or TV, Stubbs is going to have a bright future when he hangs up his spikes. It's just a matter of how quickly Stubbs wants to get to that point of his life. From here, it makes sense to play as long as possible — those opportunities are going to be there for him whenever it is he's done as a player.
