May 4, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies manager Rob Thomson (59) takes the ball from pitcher Ranger Suarez (55) during the fourth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
When considering how Ranger Suarez and Aaron Nola pitched in the 2025 season, there would be no argument as to which one you would want to start a playoff game if given the choice between the two.
Suarez had a very good season. Nola had the worst statistical season of his very good career and also endured a long stint on the I.L.
And yet, here we sit, on the eve of a must-win Game 2 of the NLDS for the Phillies, and we still don't know who is going to start Game 3.
Once again, on Monday, manager Rob Thomson was non-committal to that decision, one he said on Saturday he would wait to announce until he sees where things stand after Game 2.
But there was one new wrinkle - Suarez, who most assumed was a lock to start one of the first three games this series - would once again be available out of the bullpen in Game 2.
So will Nola, and in a sense, if one of them is used, the other is sure to start Game 3. but if neither is used on Monday, it's still seeming a little like a coin flip at this point, which is surprising.
"I think we'll probably have everybody available (for Game 2) other than (Cristopher) Sanchez," Thomson said. "And then we'll figure out Game 3.
"I'm talking about Ranger and Nola being available. We'll probably only use one of those guys unless we absolutely had to (use both) just so the other guy could start Game 3."
The Phillies are hell bent on making sure they have lefties to match up with Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, and are going out of their way to make sure they have as many options as possible and to give them as many different looks as possible.
The Dodgers have countered by moving Freeman to the cleanup spot and batting Teoscar Hernandez in the No. 3 spot.
And while this wasn't unexpected - as the Dodgers rolled out this lineup during the series against the Phillies in September - it did pay off for them.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts calls it the "Teo tax." Hernandez does hit lefties well, so if you decide to go to a lefty reliever to potentially face both Ohtani and Freeman, then not only will you have to go through Mookie Betts, but also Hernandez - and it was Hernandez who hit the big 3-run homer in Game 1 - off lefty Matt Strahm.
TEOSCAR HERNÁNDEZ!@DODGERS LEAD! #NLDS pic.twitter.com/XeygIPFj4t
Still, the Phillies believe in their lefties more than their righties, so they may want to use Suarez as a matchup option.
Prior to Game 1, Thomson said Suarez would either be used earlier in a game, or in extra innings, but after losing Game 1, he changed his tune.
Asked if Suarez could be called upon in a higher leverage spot, similar to the one Strahm came into in the seventh inning in Game 1, Thomson had a short answer.
"Possibly, yeah," he said. "Possibly."
But there is another possibility.
There's a world where the Phillies decide to piecemeal Game 2. Maybe they start Luzardo, but flip it over to Nola to try and get the Dodgers to switch their platoon guys, and then have the advantage in matchups later in the game.
In that case, Suarez would not be used and would start Game 3.
If not, then there's a very real chance that Suarez is used out of the pen and Nola starts Game 3.
The reality, though, is none of this conversation will matter if the Phillies can't win Game 2, so maybe an "all hands on deck" approach by Thomson is the right one. Monday is a must win. Do whatever it takes and figure out what comes after that when it comes time to cross that bridge.
Otherwise, that bridge might be out, and the bus Thomson is driving will have missed all the warning signs approaching it.
