Jun 10, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) talks with Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper (3) after Harper walked during the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
It feels like the Phillies and Dodgers have been on a collision course for four years, and the end of that long and winding path is now finally in sight.
In 2022, it was thought the Phillies surprise playoff run would eventually have go through Los Angeles in the NLCS. After all, the Dodgers won 111 games that season and were considered the heavy favorite to bring home the crown.
Except, they were upset in four games in the NLDS by the Padres.
In 2023, the Dodgers again won 100 games, and again it seemed like the Phillies were destined to face them in the NLCS.
But then those pesky Diamondbacks got in the way and swept LA out of the playoffs in the NLDS.
Then, in 2024, the Phillies and Dodgers jockeyed back and forth as the team with the best record in baseball, and it seemed, once again, that the stars were aligning for the two teams to meet in the NLCS.
Only this time it was the Phillies gagging in the NLDS, against the Mets.
Dave Roberts made a mysterious comment when the Dodgers played the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on April 4.
"Do you find it odd that you guys haven't met in the playoffs yet the last few years?"
"I don't necessarily want to talk it into existence." -Dave Roberts pic.twitter.com/5mHMIqWSsU
So, in 2025, it seems the universe was tired of having other teams get in the way, and it set up the Phillies to play the Dodgers a round sooner.
I mean, the last time these two played a playoff game at Citizens Bank Park, this happened:
The last time the Phillies played the dodgers in the playoffs: pic.twitter.com/0xDkftlR9T
The only difference is it'll be a five-game series instead of a seven-game series. And while it feels like the two best teams are going to play each other sooner than they should, it won't make the matchup any less intense. It won't make it any less meaningful. In fact, an already harsh spotlight will be cranked up to it's maximum level.
The world will be watching as Shohei Ohtani makes his first postseason start. If the series goes five games, as many, including me, believe it will, he'll likely start twice. Both times in Philadelphia.
The game's biggest star pitching in the most intimidating baseball park on earth. Twice. Major League Baseball is definitely signed up for this.
And you should be too.
If the two games that mattered the most between these teams this season - two weeks ago in Los Angeles with the bye on the line - are any indication of what's to come, you're going to need to get more than the popcorn ready. You're going to need a few bottles of bourbon, a whole roll of Tums, and a dustpan and broom handy to clean up all the fingernails you chewed off that fell to your living room floor.
But this is why we've invested the past seven months agonizingly scrutinizing and analyzing every little moment of the baseball season.
In preparation for this.
Saturday night will be bonkers in South Philly. Monday too. And we'll all be counting the hours, nay minutes until we get there.
In an effort to kill some of that time, I give you this article, and in it, five things that will probably determine the outcome of this series.
This might be the most important question the Phillies will need to answer. For as good as their series victory was in Los Angeles a couple weeks ago, they couldn't touch the Dodgers starters.
Yes, LA used an opener in the first game, who didn't even last an inning, and the Phillies jumped him for a couple runs, but Emmett Sheehan came in after three batters and held the Phillies without a hit for 5 2/3 innings before giving up a double to Otto Kemp, the final batter he faced.
Ohtani pitched five no-hit innings the next night. and in the finale, Blake Snell allowed just two hits in seven shutout innings.
Shohei Ohtani tossed 5 no-hit innings against the Phillies tonight 😤 @BRWalkoff pic.twitter.com/t4RcGot44N
Add that all together, and the Phillies scored one run on three hits in 17 2/3 innings against Dodgers starters.
They are going to see Ohtani in Game 1 and Snell in Game 2. Yoshinobu Yamamato, who was the Dodgers de fact o ace all season, with throw in Game 3 in Dodger Stadium next week. Who would go in Game 4 is a mystery (probably Tyler Glasnow, but we'll see), and then if it goes five, it'd be Ohtani again.
That's a bit of a murderer's row for the Phillies.
Now, having seen a couple of these guys recently should help the Phillies a little bit. They had never faced Ohtani before September 16th, so having a little more information should help.
But Ohtani is still Ohtani. It's not like facing him twice each two weeks ago suddenly unlocks a secret to hammering him. It doesn't. But it likely gives Phillies hitters a better approach and therefore a better chance at getting a little something off him.
If nothing else, the Phillies need to work the Dodgers starting pitchers. Guys like Ohtani and Snell don't normally throw a lot of innings. When Snell threw seven against the Phillies, manager Rob Thomson said that was "the best I've seen Snell."
Even if the Phillies don't put up a lot of runs on the Dodgers starters, the sooner they can get into the Dodgers bullpen, the better. (We'll get to the bullpen in a minute).
So, for the Phillies to have success in this series, they need to put more pitches on these guys - and that's hard to do because they do throw a lot of strikes - but if they run their pitch counts up then things get a little easier.
It's funny to think that two teams with payrolls as astronomical as the Phillies and Dodgers have, struggle to piece together good bullpens, and yet, here we are.
The Phillies, believe it or not, have the overall edge here, but that's like saying you have a faster bicycle in a motorcycle race.
Jhoan Duran is the best reliever on either team - and that matters. The Phillies may have to use him for more than three outs on multiple occasions in this series.
How they get to Duran, though, is going to be the matchup adventure.
It's no doubt that they will want to get Matt Strahm against Ohtani and Freddie Freeman in the highest of leverage spots late in games.
Matt Strahm strikes out Shohei Ohtani with a NASTY slider!!! 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/npEG8qwHXF https://t.co/f5cP9snNt1
But what if they need to get them out a second time between the starter and Duran?
For as good a season as Tanner Banks has had, it's still a hold your breath and hope situation with him against superstars of that ilk.
Which makes for an interesting possibility in Game 1.
It sounds like the Phillies are considering starting Jesus Luzardo in Game 2 and holding Ranger Suarez for Game 3. That hasn't been announced, yet, but rumblings are starting to circulate.
If that's the case, since Game 3 isn't until next Wednesday, the guy scheduled to pitch that game could relieve on Saturday. Might the Phillies utilize Suarez as a middle inning reliever to go after Ohtani and Freeman if needed?
Shaking this magic eight ball, the response is "Signs point to yes."
As for the Dodgers bullpen, they were terrible down the stretch. Tanner Scott is mostly unusable at the moment. Blake Trinen has been hit or miss. They walk a lot of guys. They've blown a bunch of leads. Even in the two games against Cincinnati, the Reds seemed to make things uncomfortable for the Dodgers a few times despite L.A. holding big leads.
The Dodgers are trying to bubble gum and duck tape this mess by ultilizing the depth of their starting rotation to make the bullpen more reliable.
Roki Sasaki came out firing 101 mph to close out Game 2.
Rōki Sasaki, 100mph Fastball and 89mph Splitter/Fork, Individual Pitches + Overlay pic.twitter.com/aZbrwUDRth
Clayton Kershaw wasn't on the NLWCS roster, but he could be added as a lefty option against the Phillies (Selfishly, I hope he is, because it would be cool to have guy who pitched against the Phillies in the 2008 series between these two teams pitch against them in a playoff series 17 years later.)
Sheehan pitched briefly in relief in Game 2 against the Reds. Glasnow is still a wild card. There's a lot of unknown still with the Dodgers - and not because they are keeping their cards close to their vest, but because I think they, too, are still trying to figure out how to navigate the Phillies lineup with their bullpen and without a set closer.
So, ultimately, it's going to be about how both teams get outs after their starters are done. The Phillies have a few fewer ones to worry about because they have Duran, but how the middle innings of these games go will be the incredibly important to determining a winner.
Usually, when it comes to X-factors in sports, there's usually one on each team. But when you have two teams this loaded with talent, it's possible there are multiple players who could ultimately have that moniker.
It's hard to call Bryce Harper an X-factor, for example, because he is automatically assumed to be one of the guys who will carry the load for the Phillies if they want to win any playoff series, let alone a world championship. Yet, while Harper had a good season, it was one that was statistically probably below his own personal standard.
As such, him returning to superstar status in this series could be a difference-maker.
Mookie Betts is in a similar boat for the Dodgers. He's been looking a lot more like the future Hall-of-Famer he is in the past few weeks than the guy who slogged through his worst season for much of 2025. So, he, too, can elevate the Dodgers in the same way as Harper.
But the two guys who I think will have the biggest impact on this series are two guys coming back from injury.
Will Smith made the Wild Card roster for the Dodgers despite a fractured hand suffered when he took a foul tip off it in Pittsburgh on September 3rd.
He didn't catch, but was available to pinch hit. Arguably one of the top two catchers in baseball, Smith's availability could both lengthen an already potent Dodgers lineup, but put a difference-maker behind the plate.
Trea Turner had two uneventful plate appearances in the season finale against Minnesota after missing three weeks with a hamstring strain.
He became the first Phillie to win a batting title since Richie Ashburn in 1958, so having his timing back at the plate and atop the Phillies lineup is important, for sure, but what's even more paramount is his trust in his ability to run full out. Turner went through a similar, albeit a bit more severe injury last season and never really regained the comfort to give max effort while running.
He hasn't had the runway to build that back up via game action before the playoffs so it's a matter of Turner taking off the restraints and cutting loose.
If Turner is on base and wreaking havoc offensively and trusting his legs to allow him to be as defensively sound as he was this season - his best as a Phillie - then we're talking about a guy who can swing the outcome of a five-game, heavyweight fight from one side to the other.
