Union forward Bruno Damiani, center, celebrates with teammates after his goal opened the scoring in the first half of Saturday's 6-0 win over D.C. United. (Courtesy of Philadelphia Union) Courtesy Philadelphia Union
The Philadelphia Union took care of business Saturday night at D.C. United. The rest of MLS has conspired to reward them.
Results across the league this week mean that the Union can clinch a trophy simply by winning Saturday night at home against New York City FC. In the space of a week, the Union have gone from needing to win out and get help to win the Shield to being able to clinch it with one game to spare.
The math has grown simple for the Union (19-7-6, 63 points). They go into the penultimate week of the MLS season four points ahead of FC Cincinnati and six up on San Diego and Vancouver.
The Union can hit 66 points and 20 wins, the first tiebreaker, on Saturday. Vancouver can reach 66 points if it wins its last three games, with total wins the first tiebreaker. (Recall that total wins cost the Union the Shield in 2022, when it and LAFC finished with 67 points.)
Here are the standings through Tuesday night:
Last weekend started with five teams in the Shield race and the Union leading but hardly favored. Here’s how the Union closed the door:
The Union retake Shield destiny
Before the Union kicked off against D.C. United Saturday night, one team could have taken the Shield outright for them. Inter Miami had five games remaining and 55 points. Winning out could’ve brought them to 70, one more than the Union could reach. It was a long shot – Inter Miami had won three straight and would’ve needed five more wins, in a league where only two teams have ever won eight straight games.
But the math changed when Lionel Messi and friends drew 1-1 at Toronto FC on Saturday afternoon. While Union coach Bradley Carnell attested that his team paid no attention to the result before their game in Washington, it did change the complexion of the race.
The Union beat up D.C. United
The Union did their part in a 7:30 kickoff. The Union battered an eliminated D.C. United, 6-0, at Audi Field.
The final scoreline conceals a sluggish start and two strikes of the woodwork by D.C. in the first half-hour. But Bruno Damiani scored his third goal (and third game-winning goal) in four matches in the 17th, and the Union were off to the races.
Mikael Uhre set up that goal, forced an own goal in the 34th, assisted on Indiana Vassilev’s second goal in the 51st, and scored in the 62nd. Milan Iloski had the secondary assist on Damiani’s opener, the long-range shot whose rebound Vassilev put back for his first goal, the assist on Uhre’s tally and a goal from distance in the 49th.
It was a rampage.
Just the scope of recent dominance:
Saturday night’s results go the Union’s way
The Union and four others entered the weekend with a chance at the Shield. San Diego – Iloski’s former team, incidentally – started the night on 57 points and ended it there. It lost at home, 1-0, to San Jose, despite 72% possession, 19 shots and an expected goals advantage of 2.35-0.97.
The loss lowered San Diego’s maximum points to 63.
Vancouver entered the week with two games in hand, at 55 points from 29 matches. That put the Whitecaps’ maximum points at 70.
But a 1-1 draw Wednesday against Portland lowered it to 68. And a 2-2 draw at Seattle Saturday dropped it to 66. Vancouver is 16-6-9. If it hits 66 points by winning out, it would be with 19 wins, one shy of the Union.
A sweet Sunday
FC Cincinnati hosted Orlando City for Apple’s Sunday night soccer, with a chance to keep the pressure on the Union. Cincinnati entered with 58 points, two back of the of Union.
But in a wild game, Orlando’s Alex Freeman scored on a header in the sixth minute of second-half stoppage time for a 1-1 draw. It was deserved: The Lions outshot Cincy, 24-18, generating seven big chances to Cincy’s one and an xG of 3.41 to Cincy’s 1.54.
Cincinnati is on 59 points. It can max out at 65.
A Tuesday night Fire drill
By the end of Sunday, the Union held full control over the race. One result Tuesday would allow them to clinch the trophy on Saturday.
Inter Miami hosted Chicago Tuesday with a chance to still get to 68 points. Any dropped points – a draw or loss – would lower that to a max of 65 or 66, with the Union holding the tiebreaker.
There was plenty more intrigue here. With a win, Chicago could end its playoff drought at seven seasons, the longest in MLS. It would also eliminate the New York Red Bulls, which had made the playoffs each of the last 15 seasons. The last miss, in 2009, was before its rival to the south existed.
The Fire came out fast in Fort Lauderdale, leading 2-0, up 3-1 at half and withstanding a second-half Luis Suarez brace for a 5-3 win that exposed Miami’s myriad defensive flaws.
That sends the league into the penultimate week of the season with the math simple. They need one win in their last two games to lift the second trophy in club history, either against New York City on Saturday or at Charlotte on Decision Day on Oct. 18.
New York City is up to third in the East, 7-0-2 in their last nine. Charlotte is fourth, having followed an eight-game winning streak with two straight losses. Neither is an easy game, and the Union have built a reputation this season for walloping stragglers while struggling against the elite. Their last win against a team sitting in the top four in the conference was June 14 against Charlotte, which was then in eighth.
The messy math
Things get complicated if the Union don’t hit 66 points. Vancouver has three games left – home to San Jose, at Orlando during the international break, home to Dallas. All are winnable. Vancouver cannot mathematically finish with exactly 65 points.
If the Union draw each of their last two games, 65 points gets messy. Miami can get there by winning out, as can Cincinnati and LAFC, which has 53 points from 30 games.
If the Union draw twice and Cincinnati wins out, Cincy would hold the wins tiebreaker with 20.
If the Union draw twice and Miami wins out, both would have identical 19-7-8 records, which would then go to goal differential. Miami is at plus-16, the Union plus-23. Big, but not insurmountable.
If the Union draw twice and LAFC wins out, both would be 19-7-8. LAFC would have a superior goal differential (they’re at plus-23 now; the Union wouldn’t improve in two draws).
Of course, there’s one way to ameliorate that: A simple win on Saturday.
