Prediction market platform Kalshi lets users bet on how new music releases will perform, including Miley Cyrus' latest album
At only 33 years old, Miley Cyrus has been releasing music for almost 20 years. Given her lengthy discography, it’s unsurprising that she is about to release her ninth studio album, “Something Beautiful,” on May 30. Following the impressive success of her last album, the new one is highly anticipated. Traders around the United States are trading on Cyrus’s likelihood of having a No. 1 song or album on the Billboard charts via top prediction platform Kalshi.
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Currently, there are two prediction markets around Miley Cyrus that you can trade real money on. Here’s what you should know to legally trade on Cyrus music markets.
Daughter of country star Billy Ray Cyrus, Miley Cyrus rose to fame as a child star sensation in the iconic role of Hannah Montana. Cyrus released her initial songs as part of the first “Hannah Montana” soundtrack album back in 2006.
In 2007, Cyrus released music under her own name, introducing herself to the world via her debut album, “Meet Miley Cyrus.” On May 30, she released her ninth studio album, “Something Beautiful.”
Cyrus is most remembered for her bold pop songs and music videos, like the cannonball-swinging “Wrecking Ball.” However, her albums have spanned many genres, from folk to rock to country.
“Something Beautiful” is promised to be a multi-genre release described as a psychedelic album. Unlike her previous albums, “Something Beautiful” is a visual album that will be accompanied by a musical film of the same name. The film will be released in movie theaters for one day only on June 12.
On Kalshi, there is one Billboard Hot 100 market for Miley Cyrus. Traders are betting on whether Cyrus will have any No. 1 hit songs this year.
So far, it seems unlikely, and this is how to know: You can look at the performance of her pre-album-release singles so far.
The lead single, “End of the World,” reached the No. 52 spot on the Hot 100 chart. Almost two months after its release on April 3, it has 53 million listens on Spotify. This isn’t a bad performance, but it's far from the top position.
The next single to place on the Billboard charts is “More to Lose.” After its first week, the song reached the No. 5 spot on the Bubbling Under Hot 100 chart. This likely means it will fall off the charts and not get to the Hot 100.
You can check Kworb to see the streaming numbers and determine if the singles are receiving a significant number of daily listens. You can also examine music video views and Spotify's daily and weekly playlists to see how the songs are performing relative to their competitors.
Given the poor performance of these two singles from the album, it doesn’t seem likely for her to have a No. 1 hit. She has only had two previous number ones — “Wrecking Ball” and “Flowers.”
“Flowers” was a smash, but the success of that song wasn’t enough to push either of the other two singles from the same album into even the top 30. Unless there is another huge single, this new album’s singles are likely to underperform.
With nine of her own albums and plenty of “Hannah Montana” albums and EPs, Cyrus has had 16 entries in the Billboard 200 album chart. This includes five number ones.
Three of those number ones are “Hannah Montana” releases, and the other two are her own albums — “Breakout” (2008) and “Bangerz” (2013). Her last album, “Endless Summer Vacation,” which featured the hit “Flowers,” peaked at No. 3.
“Endless Summer Vacation” actually peaked at a lower position than her previous album, “Plastic Hearts,” which had seemingly less mainstream attention. However, a single from the album, “Midnight Sky,” peaked at No. 14, which is higher than any of the tracks from “Something Beautiful” so far.
Although “Endless Summer Vacation” contained a No. 1 single, it performed worse than “Plastic Hearts,” so perhaps single performance isn’t the only indicator. Moreover, the accompanying film aspect of “Something Beautiful” could boost album sales, especially if she sings about a particularly controversial topic that would draw attention. However, it will be released two weeks after the album, which may not help its numbers.
Besides examining recent album releases for the artist, consider whether the album has any notable competition. Morgan Wallen’s “I’m The Problem” could pose a problem, even though it was released back on May 16.
Lastly, you can consult with other experts and review their predictions. For example, Twitter user @talkofthecharts frequently posts multiple predictions throughout the week.
While Cyrus has a history of No. 1 albums, the lukewarm reception of her recent singles suggests a top Billboard Hot 100 hit is unlikely. The visual film component could boost the album chart performance of “Something Beautiful,” but its delayed June 12 release — two weeks after the May 30 album drop — may limit its impact during the initial peak interest window.
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