You can now legally bet on the success of Kali Uchis songs (and other musicians).
American singer Kali Uchis has returned to the music world with her fifth studio album entitled Sincerely. Officially released on May 9, 2025, Uchis fans haven’t had to wait long — her last album was released a little less than a year and a half ago. With the arrival of her latest album, fans can trade on the success of Uchis’s music via the top prediction platform Kalshi.
Sign up to Kalshi to trade music markets.
There are three prediction markets currently surrounding Uchis, providing multiple opportunities for music fans to profit from their favorite music artists. Here’s what you need to know to safely and legally trade on Kali Uchis music markets.
At only 30 years old, Uchis has been releasing music for over ten years. The multi-genre Colombian-American performer has a Grammy Award, an American Music Award, and five nominations for a Latin Grammy.
Uchis’ latest album has three singles: Sunshine & Rain (released on March 27), ILYSMIH (released on April 25), and All I Can Say (released with the album on May 9).
Uchis is known for her mixture of multiple genres, including R&B, soul, and Latin influences. Her most recent albums have impressive Billboard chart histories, and her music seems to continue growing in popularity.
On Kalshi, there is one Spotify streams prediction market for Uchis’s song, Sugar! Honey! Love! In this market, traders are predicting the number of streams the song will have by the end of its first week.
To predict this, it is a good idea to look at this album’s previous singles and how they performed in their first week. Her first single from Sincerely, Sunshine & Rain, debuted with 4.9 million Spotify streams in its first week.
It is also useful to look at their first-day debut performance and see how that reflected in their total streams. For the second single, ILYSMIH, the song received 804,000 streams in its first day. Less than a month later, the song has about 6 million listens. This is significantly lower than Sunshine & Rain, which now has 19 million streams.
You can also look at daily streaming numbers and see if they are increasing or decreasing to gauge the song’s momentum. By May 14, 2025, Sugar! Honey! Love! had about 1.9 million streams, which makes around 2-2.5 million the most likely range where the song ends up in the first week.
There’s also a Kalshi market on whether Uchis will have a No. 1 hit this year on the Billboard Hot 100. The best way to predict this is to look at her Billboard chart history.
Uchis has had eight entries in the Billboard Hot 100, and her highest charting song was Igual Que Un Angel with Peso Pluma at No. 22. All of her eight entries were from 2023 and earlier. She hasn’t been able to chart a song in the last year and a half.
Her past three singles didn’t appear at all on the charts. This would mean that one of her songs would have to go viral for it to reach the No. 1 spot, and based on her recent chart history, the chances seem slim.
While Uchis has struggled to break into the top of the Hot 100, the same isn’t true for the Billboard 200 chart. Of her four previous albums, all of them were able to land a spot in the top 60.
Her first album, Isolation, landed at No. 32, her second album, Sin Miedo (Del Amor y Otros Demonios), at No. 52, and her third album, Red Moon In Venus, at No. 4. Her fourth and last album, Orquideas, made it to No. 2. This is a very strong record for Uchis.
There is a clear positive trend in her most recent album releases, and her likelihood of reaching the top of the Billboard 200 is much higher than that of the Hot 100.
Besides looking at past Billboard performances, you can also look at the album’s competition and streaming performance.
Streams aren’t the only factor used to calculate the Billboard 200, but they can be an indicator. As of May 14, 2024, Sincerely had 5 million streams in one day. Its biggest competitor is Sleep Token’s Even in Arcadia, which had a total of 10 million in one day.
You can also look at experts who make their own predictions and see if they align with your predictions. Twitter account @talkofthecharts releases multiple predictions throughout the week and is currently predicting Sincerely will debut at the No. 2 mark.
Midweek Billboard 200 Predictions (chart dated May 24th, 2025; via @HITSDD). pic.twitter.com/V3DmYSxI3R
While Kali Uchis' latest album, Sincerely, appears poised to continue her strong Billboard 200 chart performance, her singles have struggled to gain significant streaming traction, making her chance of achieving a #1 Hot 100 hit this year unlikely.
