Traders speculate on the highly-anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto 6.
For those unfamiliar with the video game space, a new Grand Theft Auto game is equivalent to a new rom-com in the 2000s or an Avengers movie in the 2010s. Grand Theft Auto 6 serves as a bellwether for both the tumultuous gaming industry and the broader global economy affected by Trump's tariffs. Last week, Grand Theft Auto 6 was delayed, and now video game fans and prediction market platforms are theorizing and predicting what will happen next.
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For months, video game fans on the top prediction platform, Kalshi, have been trying to predict whether Rockstar will delay GTA VI. As a result, prediction markets have reacted to the news. For example, 77% of Kalshi traders predicted GTA 6 would be released before February 2026, right up to the delay announcement before it fell to 7%.
What does this mean for the broader video game industry? How has this affected prediction markets? Let’s take a deeper look.
Before diving into Grand Theft Auto, here’s what you need to know about prediction markets. If you live in the United States and want to trade on prediction markets legally, you can do that with Kalshi.
Other popular prediction markets include Polymarket. Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform, but users living in the U.S. cannot legally trade on it.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction market platform where you can bet on the likelihood of an event, such as whether GTA 6 will be released before August 2026. You can decide if the chance is higher or lower than the current market rate.
If currently the likelihood of a release date before August 2026 is at 74%, you can purchase a “yes” share at 74 cents if you believe the chance is higher. You can buy a “no” share at 26 cents if you believe the chance is lower. If you are correct, you will receive a whole dollar for every share you purchased.
With the correct information or hunch, any trader can make money from video game prediction markets.
Grand Theft Auto 6 has been in development since 2014, with principal development starting in 2018. The video game has had a long road to release, with most Kalshi users predicting a release date this Fall.
However, most video game fans familiar with Rockstar’s infamous delays in the past were not surprised by the further delay. On May 3, 2025, the official Twitter account for Rockstar Games tweeted that GTA 6 was delayed until May 26, 2026.
Grand Theft Auto VI is now set to release on May 26, 2026. https://t.co/YgaIn1cYc8 pic.twitter.com/cyeK7GM6Ob
It’s important to understand why this delay is larger than just fan disappointment. For instance, the delay led to Take-Two Interactive’s (Rockstar’s parent company) stocks tumbling. But that’s not the only effect.
🚨📉 Take-Two Interactive's stock has tanked following the GTA 6 delay announcement.$TTWO pic.twitter.com/MWQ85NgYFf
Other video game producers and distributors are shifting and placing their own release dates because they don’t want to compete with Grand Theft Auto 6. The president of EA alluded to GTA 6’s release when he said, “There may be some things happening in the year that may cause us to think differently about our launch timing.”
To put it in perspective, Grand Theft Auto 5 made $1 billion in three days. Experts believe the sequel can make $1 billion in even less time.
But GTA 6 is also expected to determine the industry's direction for the next decade. Rumors suggest that it will cost $100, which could set a new standard for video game pricing.
Grand Theft Auto 6's delay caused significant shifts in prediction markets. On Kalshi, traders now think there's only a 55% chance the game will actually meet its new release date. They also believe the price might increase, with the odds of it costing over $90 rising from 26% to 41%.
Meanwhile, Polymarket's confidence in a 2025 release plummeted from 69% to just 5%. They've even created a "What will happen before GTA VI?" market featuring everything from serious options like a new Rihanna album or a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire to a satirical option for the second coming of Jesus Christ.
Red Dead Redemption 2 delays:
Fall 2017 -> Spring 2018 -> October 26th 2018
GTA 6 delays:
Fall 2025 -> Spring 2026 (May 26th) -> ?
It is absolutely a green flag that they gave a specific date rather than a window this time, but please keep in mind a 2nd delay is possible. pic.twitter.com/flQy0lZlqA
The record-breaking potential of GTA 6 makes its delay significant not just for disappointed fans, but for the entire gaming industry as companies reschedule their own releases and investors watch closely. With prediction markets and video game fans showing skepticism about the new release date, the gaming world faces a very different 2025 than originally anticipated.
