Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) celebrates with shortstop Trea Turner (right) and first baseman Bryce Harper (left) after hitting a home run during the fourth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks in game four of the NLCS of the 2023 MLB playoffs at Chase Field in Phoenix on Oct. 20, 2023.
Who will lead off for the Phillies on Opening Day Thursday against MacKenzie Gore and the Washington Nationals? It's not even clear if manager Rob Thomson is certain yet.
Sunday was the fifth Spring Training game in a row when both Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner were in the lineup that the former hit first and the latter hit second. That led many to conclude that it would be Schwarber hitting first to open the season.
However, after previously saying at the outset of camp that he didn't expect to rotate the top of the order depending on who the opposing pitcher was, Thomson re-opened the door to the possibility of doing so Sunday:
Thomson also said on the broadcast that Trea Turner will hit leadoff in the Grapefruit League finale tomorrow. Said that he is also thinking about having Schwarber lead off against righties, Turner against lefties.
Indeed, Turner led off in Monday's Grapefruit League finale against the Tampa Bay Rays. If the plan is to rotate him and Schwarber based off of the handedness of the opposing pitcher, Turner would seem to be in line to lead off on Opening Day against the left-handed Gore.
However, there's still a case to be made for Schwarber leading off against lefties, particularly Gore. A year ago, Schwarber hit .300 with an .898 OPS against lefties. Also, Gore had reverse splits last season, with left-handed hitters posting an .834 OPS against him, as opposed to .704 for righties. Whether you want to call it analytics or just information, the numbers tell you that Schwarber should lead off against Gore Thursday.
In the grand scheme of things, lineup order probably doesn't matter nearly as much as fans think. But by not picking a leadoff hitter and giving that guy some runway, the Phillies have poured gasoline on the notion that "Who should be the leadoff hitter?" is the most important debate in Philadelphia sports.
With all that acknowledged, here's On Pattison's fourth and final projection of what Thomson's starting lineup will look like Thursday afternoon at Nationals Park.
For his part, Turner is a .302 career hitter when hitting out of the top spot in the lineup.
Early in camp, he seemed excited about the possibility of potentially leading off:
Trea Turner on the possibility of leading off this season: pic.twitter.com/rovBY1KEGF
If the Phillies are able to get anything close to the version of Turner that hit .316 in the three seasons prior to joining the Phillies, he would be a tremendous table setter when you factor in his speed on the basepaths.
At the beginning of camp, Harper was asked about potentially sliding up to the second spot behind Turner if Schwarber was going to hit cleanup.
"I mean, I haven't been talked to yet," Harper said. "Obviously, I'm a three-hole hitter and I have been. But whenever they tell me to hit two or four, I've done that in the past as you guys know. I wanna win, so I don't care what that takes."
Harper has hit .251 with a .783 OPS out of the No. 2 spot in the lineup in his career, which is underwhelming compared to what he's done at No. 3 or No. 4. With that said, he hasn't done much hitting out of that spot since joining the Phillies in 2019, and you're inclined to believe that wherever Harper hits, he'll have success because of who he is.
It seems that Bohm is going to hit either third or fourth in the lineup to open the season depending upon where Schwarber is hitting. If Schwarber is hitting cleanup, that obviously bumps Bohm up to the third spot.
Bohm hit .370 in Spring Training, helping to quiet the noise around him following an offseason where his name was mentioned in trade rumors on a pretty frequent basis. The Phillies would love if Bohm is able to parlay that into anything like what he did last March/April, when he got off to a scalding-hot start to the season by hitting .366 with 12 doubles in the first month of the season.
The Phillies have gone to the playoffs three times in three years with Schwarber serving as their primary leadoff hitter, so all the bellyaching about him leading off is a bit melodramatic. The reason that the Phillies have failed to get over the hump and win a World Series in each of the last three postseasons isn't because they had a non-prototypical leadoff hitter in Schwarber.
With that said, Schwarber has launched 131 home runs in three seasons with the Phillies. He probably is their best option to hit fourth also. Whether he remains in this spot against lefties or even righties consistently will probably come down to whether Turner can get on base enough to justify moving Schwarber out of the top spot.
Nick Castellanos is pretty comfortable in this spot, but Realmuto consistently hit above him during the final days of Spring Training. So we'll go with Realmuto here, because the Spring Training lineup order can't be completely meaningless, right?
Though he only hit .226, Realmuto had seven RBIs in 31 at-bats this spring. The three-time All-Star is hoping that translates to producing a ton of runs during what will be a contract year.
It was fair to have some reservations about the one-year/$10 million signing of Kepler this past offseason. He's struggled to stay healthy in recent years, and is another lefty in a lineup already full of left-handed hitters. We'll see whether those concerns end up being justified.
But in his first spring working with hitting coach Kevin Long, Kepler hit .375 with three home runs and 11 RBIs. Again, you should take Grapefruit League results with the largest grain of salt possible, but if he had struggled, there would have been a ton of panic. Instead, he was very impressive, perhaps a good omen for what's to come in 2025.
Castellanos finished last season on a heater. After posting an .839 OPS following the All-Star Break, Castellanos hit .412 in the four-game NLDS against the New York Mets. The Phillies went home earlier than they hoped, but there's not much more Castellanos could have done.
With that said, he got off to an ice-cold start last season, hitting .193 with 28 strikeouts in March/April. He had just six hits in 40 Spring Training at-bats, for whatever it's worth. There may be logic in starting him out at this spot in the lineup and moving the two-time All-Star up based on how he fares early in the season.
Nick Castellanos: “…my style of hitting, which is always like glorified batting practice … I don’t really have an approach, I look for the baseball and hit it as hard as I can…” @PhilliesNation pic.twitter.com/HmZbzbPp6C
It might be a stretch to call this a make-or-break season for Stott because he's an excellent defender and has stolen 30 bases in consecutive years. But there's a real chance that top prospect Aidan Miller, a shortstop, will be ready to go in 2026. Turner has struggled at shortstop, and second base could be a natural landing spot for him if he's usurped at shortstop by Miller. So it may be a make-or-break year for Stott as far as his future with the Phillies is concerned.
A nerve issue in his right elbow certainly affected him to some extent for much of last season. But since hitting .301 in the first half of the 2023 season, Stott has hit .248 across 759 regular-season at-bats. He needs to prove in 2025 that he's a lot closer to the All-Star level player he appeared to be early in 2023.
The early part of the season should be about the Phillies once and for all finding out whether Marsh can hit left-handed pitching if given extended runway.
Two seasons ago, Marsh appeared to be turning the corner against lefties, as he hit .219 with a .717 OPS. That's not particularly good, but it's not unplayable either.
However, Marsh hit .192 with a .552 OPS and 33 strikeouts in 90 plate appearances against southpaws last season. He was brutal against lefties last year, and struggled so much that it was hard to justify giving him increased opportunities.
But early in 2025, Marsh will get the opportunity to prove that he's worthy of at-bats against lefties. Whether he does or not will likely go a long way in determining how the Phillies proceed with the outfield prior to the July 31 trade deadline.
