Sep 4, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Philadelphia Phillies left fielder Kyle Schwarber (12) hits a home run and celebrates with Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images
Rob Thomson has changed his tune multiple times on whether he would rotate leadoff hitters, and it's unclear why.
Kyle Schwarber led off for the Phillies in Sunday's 4-2 Grapefruit League win over the Detroit Tigers. It was the fifth consecutive game in which both Schwarber and Trea Turner were in the lineup that Schwarber led off and Turner hit second. Naturally, many began to conclude Sunday morning that the Phillies had settled on Schwarber as their leadoff hitter to begin the season.
But not so fast...
As Phillies Nation's Destiny Lugardo noted, Thomson said on the broadcast — which for some reason was only on MLB.com and not NBC Sports Philadelphia — that Turner will lead off in tomorrow's spring finale against the Tampa Bay Rays:
Thomson also said on the broadcast that Trea Turner will hit leadoff in the Grapefruit League finale tomorrow. Said that he is also thinking about having Schwarber lead off against righties, Turner against lefties.
It's interesting for Thomson to be thinking about possibly alternating leadoff hitters because it's an idea he mentioned in his appearance on "The Phillies Show" with Todd Zolecki, Ruben Amaro Jr. and Jim Salisbury in January.
"I think we'll play with it during Spring Training and see where it goes and see what the best fit for us is," Thomson said. "And maybe it's a situation where if we're facing a lefty we do one thing, if we're facing a righty we do another thing. Maybe it's moving [Kyle] Schwarber behind [Bryce] Harper to protect Harper more ... which, maybe that moves Harper up in the lineup a little bit ... not leadoff, but maybe two.
"But those are conversations that I've gotta have with guys and we'll do the best thing we can and keep people comfortable, but at the same time, put the best lineup out there to score runs," Thomson continued. "I tell people all the time 'Don't forget now, we were top five in almost every major category offensively. So let's not try and outthink this thing.'"
However, when Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer brought up the possibility of alternating Schwarber and Turner based off of who is starting for the opposing team at the outset of camp, Thomson seemed to squash it.
"I think the back end of the lineup, sure," Thomson said of adjusting the lineup based on who the Phillies are facing. "But with Harper's ability to hit left-handed pitching and Schwarber's ability to hit left-handed pitching, I want those guys getting as many at-bats as we can. So I don't think I'm gonna mess with the front — whatever the front is ... I don't know that, we're gonna play around with some things in Spring Training. But yeah, I think the top four or five guys are gonna be pretty consistent."
For the Phillies to now be back at a point where they are considering alternating the two to open the season feels like they are overthinking this.
If you want to shake things up at the top of the order and try having Turner lead off and Schwarber hit cleanup, then just do that. A majority of the fanbase would probably support that decision, and even most of those who would prefer Schwarber leading off likely wouldn't be outraged if someone who has 131 home runs the last three years hits fourth.
But if the Phillies cracked the door open to the possibility of changes at the top of the order last October and have since decided that Schwarber is still their best option leading off, then they should just own that. They've won a ton of games with Schwarber leading off over the last three years. It is non-traditional, but it can't be that bad given the amount of success the Phillies have had with Schwarber leading off.
The idea of alternating the two doesn't make a ton of sense from here. Why would you take Schwarber out of the leadoff spot against left-handed pitchers? He's coming off of a season where he hit .300 with an .898 OPS against lefties. Also, for what it's worth, Thursday's Opening Day starter for the Nationals, MacKenzie Gore, is a lefty, but has reverse splits.
One thing to consider is that Bryce Harper has indicated on multiple occasions — including when he arrived at Clearwater last month — that while he's willing to hit second or fourth, third is his preference.
"I mean, I haven't been talked to yet," Harper said. "Obviously, I'm a three-hole hitter and I have been. But whenever they tell me to hit two or four, I've done that in the past as you guys know. I wanna win, so I don't care what that takes."
Ultimately, Thomson is the manager and he will write out the lineup. But outside of managing partner John Middleton, Harper is probably the most powerful person in the organization. If the Phillies are uncertain about whether to go with Schwarber or Turner leading off, perhaps having Schwarber hit first and keeping Harper in his desired third spot makes the most sense.
There are plenty of internal dynamics to consider. It feels like external pressure has also creeped into the decision-making process here, and it's left the Phillies in a situation where they seem indecisive about what to do at the top of the order.
