Apr 27, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) gestures after a catch during the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports Orlando Ramirez
Even before No. 1 prospect Andrew Painter makes his MLB Debut, the Phillies project to have an elite starting rotation with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Ranger Suárez and Jesús Luzardo.
And yet, Pat Ragazzo — who covers the New York Mets on Sports Illustrated — reported Saturday that the Phillies are among eight teams who the Padres have been scouting because they have some level of interest in Dylan Cease. Ragazzo has nailed some pretty big reports, so there's no doubt from here that there's legitimacy to what he's saying.
But what does it mean? Most likely that the Padres are just doing their due diligence. By all accounts, the Padres don't intend to trade Cease before 2025, which will be his contract year. But in the event they make him available at some point this season and starting pitching becomes a need for the Phillies — neither of which seems particularly likely — it would be helpful to have had eyes on Philadelphia's system in the not-so-distant past. (The Padres might also want to be familiar with the Phillies' system in case they become players for a reliever like Robert Suárez or Jason Adam.)
The why of this report is probably the most interesting angle. Cease has been mentioned as a trade candidate this offseason. So why are the Phillies just now being tied to the 29-year-old righty? The Mets have a World Series-caliber lineup, but have already lost Frankie Montas for a significant chunk of the season with a lat strain. Sean Manaea is throwing again, but is behind after dealing with an oblique injury. Kodai Senga made just one start last regular season. And Clay Holmes, a converted reliever, is going to be the Opening Day starter. The Yankees have lost Gerrit Cole, so they certainly have a need for another frontline starter. But the Mets are at the forefront of teams with World Series aspirations that need an ace.
What would the worst-case scenario for Mets fans be? That the Phillies — a division rival who already have a great pitching staff — find a way to get even richer in their starting rotation while the Mets fail to upgrade. And so, this information is given to a Mets-centric outlet, likely to stir up angst among Mets fans, with the hope that they will put enough pressure on the organization to get them to blow the Padres away with an offer for Cease.
From @AntSanPhilly: Phillies have roster decisions looming as Spring Training winds downhttps://t.co/8nqSOqRkBf
But while the Phillies probably do like Cease — as every team should — the problem is it's just not really believable that they are going to end up being a major threat for his services. The Phillies have five excellent starters already, with another immense talent in Painter looming. They aren't moving Painter or Sánchez for one year of Cease, while Wheeler and Nola are signed to megadeals. They just got Luzardo, who is under team control through the 2026 season. And there's no reason to think the Padres would do a trade for Cease centered around Suárez, who will also be a free agent next winter.
The guess here is that even if the Mets and/or Atlanta Braves become serious suitors for Cease at some point and the Padres end up be willing to move him — that's already a lot of ifs — the Phillies aren't going to step in and make the type of offer to acquire the righty. They just don't have anywhere close to the same type of motivation to do so.
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