Does Ace Bailey fit the Sixers’ timeline?

Two of the consensus top five picks in the 2025 NBA draft play less than 90 minutes away from Philadelphia. One is Ace Bailey, a 6-foot-10 wing who will turn 19 just months before his first NBA game.

Here's what you need to know about the Tennessee native currently finishing up his freshman year at Rutgers.

Strengths

• The attribute that puts Bailey in the top five of this draft is his ability to shoot at his size. At his height, with a seven-foot wingspan, he creates his own shot effortlessly by nature of being bigger than anyone who would reasonably be guarding him. He's comfortable shooting at three levels of the floor and knows how to act on post-ups against mismatched defenders.
• There's no hesitation to his shot. He's hunting for his look off the catch and off the dribble.
• Bailey's long strides allow him to cover a ton of ground on gathers off the dribble. He's able to get creative going to the basket in that regard.
• You can tell he genuinely cares on defense. He makes a lot of mistakes on that end, but he's motivated as an on-ball defender. He uses his length well when he's engaged, engulfing the ball with his wingspan and making offensive players have to pivot away from the basket or really think about how to get a pass off. That length, coupled with the strides he's capable of making from spot to spot, helps him recover on his own defensive miscues and make plays as a shot-blocker. He will be an excellent defensive player if he wants to be.

Opportunities

• Bailey's level of engagement off the ball needs a lot of work - on both ends of the floor. He's often in bad position, leaving himself susceptible to back-cuts. He spends a significant amount of time just standing and does not move with great purpose.
• Rutgers lists him at 200 pounds. For context, Dylan Harper - his 6-foot-6 star teammate - is listed at 220 pounds. Kevin Durant, who is an inch taller than Bailey is, is listed at 240 pounds. This is not to suggest he won't bulk up and add weight. He will in time. It's that he's a prime target to get pushed around right now. It's most apparent at the rim when Bailey is ball-watching. It is quite easy for smaller players to crash and block him out. It happens when Bailey is defending inside, too. He gets pushed off his spot very easily. When Bailey is chasing through picks, it's not difficult for screeners to hold him off. The lack of muscle mass makes screen navigation a significant concern for him early on.
• Bailey defends with flat feet. He's susceptible to blow-bys on heavy closeouts. He doesn't withstand dribble penetration when there's chaos because his footwork makes it difficult to stay in front of ball-handlers. If he's late to a rotation, it leads to silly reach-in fouls.
• His off-ball awareness on offense leaves much to be desired. He acts as a spacer, rarely governing a possession to the degree that Harper does. He cuts to the wrong spots when he does move, bringing a helper toward a shooter to turn an open shot into a contested one.
• Bailey has very inconsistent desire to use his left hand. He's pretty predictable as a handler. He's going to find his way back to his right hand, rarely ever rejecting a righty ball screen. It can lead to defenses sitting on his right hand with traps or icing pick-and-roll coverages to the left side of the floor.
• Bailey has basically no eye for playmaking. He has shown flashes of excellent passes. But, he sees the rim above all else. His field goal attempt-to-assist ratio is 15:1. The film supports such an egregious number.

The film

The touch at his size is truly the essence of Bailey's game at this point in time. He has counter moves to shed defenders with tremendous footwork. He demands that you communicate well on screens because he will get to his pull-up if there is any space left:

While his tunnel vision does lead to instances of forced shot selection, there is a driver in there. He uses his long arms in conjunction with his stride to gather the ball well before he reaches the rim for finishes. That gift, the ability to maintain his path on long gathers, lends itself to him being a controlled finisher:

But the concerns with strength apply on offense, too. It's fair to worry about how well he can protect the ball from defenders reaching in on the drives.

You'll notice in the clips above that all of those drives are with his right hand. That's not a coincidence. As we said, it makes him predictable. Things like this happen because he's not as comfortable with his left:

If he's not getting trapped on his right side or iced by defenses that want to make him go left, Bailey is stalling the offense because he's not nearly decisive enough with his off hand.

His quick first step does make him a good off-ball cutter when he's aware. Possessing that explosion is why his lack of awareness is particularly maddening:

He could be a magnificent off-ball weapon if he used those intangibles more consistently.

While I've been critical of Bailey's defense, I applaud the care he demonstrates. When engaged, he uses his wingspan and stride to make plays on the ball:

Bailey often uses those tools to cover up his own mistakes. That's why I believe the heart is in the right place. His instincts and habits just need work.

The reality is that his defense is a significant problem right now:

In that sample, you have ball-watching and bad positioning. That can lead to inconsequential bumps on cutters and rollers, open lanes for backdoor cutters, space for shooters to relocate and rebounders crashing to get inside position at the rim. Bailey shows his flat-footedness on the ball, leading to dribble penetration that forces his teammates into rotation. He has heavy feet on closeouts, leading to defensive scrambling and chaos. The muscle mass is a problem on screens. Bailey has a rough time navigating picks, leading to open shooters and gaps for ball-handlers to exploit.

All of that creates a conundrum at the NBA level. He's not strong enough to guard power forwards and centers. Bailey is not sharp enough on his feet to contain point guards and shooting guards. Small forwards are often the best of size, quickness and agility. So who does he guard at the NBA level right now?

I'd be more willing to accept his defensive issues in the short term if he demonstrated playmaking skills. Unfortunately, Bailey wears that shot-to-assist ratio quite well.

There's a lot of this:

There's a lot of this, too:

There are passes that hit the ankles instead of the hands of the moving teammate in stride, or hit the shooter in locations that take him out of his setup.

There is not nearly enough of this:

Questions

I think it's a bit unfair to paint every piece of constructive feedback as a reflection on the player and the player alone. So there are team-level questions that need to be answered. How much of Bailey's over-helping - from the weak side of the floor and in general - is team defensive scheme and not just an area of his basketball intelligence that needs to be developed? 

The second question is more pointed. I watched a lot of Rutgers' possessions. I saw Bailey govern the offense just one time with Harper on the floor. Does he want the responsibility that comes with being a top five pick?

Gray area

Similar to the questions, there is one shade of gray area to Bailey's game that I struggled to unpack. He vacillates between being a willing catch-and-shoot guy and a record-scratch ball-stopper when it swings his way. He's more than capable of shooting off the catch, but he's not consistently decisive with it.

Shades of: Cam Thomas, Jabari Smith Jr., Brandon Ingram and Kevin Durant

Fit with Sixers

Bailey would be an intriguing fit in Philadelphia's ecosystem because of how he'd play off of Tyrese Maxey. He's a willing popper and knows how to space out of the screen to wait for the pass. The shooting would be excellent. Maxey's experience with Joel Embiid should allow for quick chemistry between them. But I have significant concerns about just how much he desires the responsibility of being a top offensive option. His offensive game is not dynamic enough to work through scoring struggles right now. His defense has years to go. If Philadelphia is looking to use this draft as an opportunity to both supplement the current core and bridge to the next era, I don't believe that they have the time to wait for Bailey to develop.

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