Apr 28, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) smiles as he runs to first base on a single against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports John E Sokolowski
Earlier this week, Bryce Harper told Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that he would be willing to move back to the outfield if the Phillies signed a star first baseman. That ignited speculation about the Phillies potentially pursuing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. next winter in free agency.
Harper did acknowledge that the Phillies "like me at first base." The feeling here is that the overwhelming likelihood is that the two-time NL MVP will spend the rest of his career playing first base or at DH. It's less stress on his body than playing in the outfield, and Harper had five defensive runs saved and seven outs above average in his first full season at first base a year ago.
With that said, it's not difficult to talk yourself into a potential pursuit of Guerrero. Over his first six MLB seasons, Guerrero is a four-time All-Star and has won two Silver Slugger Awards. There's been variances in just how productive he is, but Guerrero finished runner-up in AL MVP Award voting in 2021 and is coming off of a 2024 season where he hit .323 with 30 home runs and a .940 OPS. Guerrero will be entering just his age-27 season when he hits free agency next offseason.
And by all accounts, Guerrero will hit the open market next winter. He and the Blue Jays discussed a long-term deal this offseason, with the Magnus Sports client saying he would test free agency if a long-term deal wasn't in place by the first full-squad workout last month. Not only was an extension not reached, but Guerrero said that he and the Blue Jays didn't come close to one:
When asked if the Blue Jays were close to the contract number Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would have signed, his one-word answer: “No.”
Still, Guerrero said he would re-sign in free agency and wants to be a Blue Jay for life. He also said: Now, they’ll have to beat 29 other teams.
Guerrero revealed to ESPN's Enrique Rojas and Ernesto Jerez that he wasn't asking the Blue Jays to match the record-shattering 15-year/$765 million deal that the New York Mets gave Juan Soto this past offseason.
"It's much less than Soto," Guerrero said. "We're talking about many fewer millions than Soto, more than a hundred million less. ... It was the same number of years [as Soto's contract], but it didn't reach [$600 million]. The last number we gave them as a counteroffer didn't reach 600," Guerrero said.
"I know the business. I lowered the salary demands a bit, but I also lowered the number of years. ... I'm looking for 14 [years]. I would like 14, 15, even 20 if they give them to me, but doing it the right way."
Even if Guerrero wasn't looking to get the Soto deal from the Blue Jays, if he has another monster season in 2025, his asking price will surely rise above $600 million in free agency. On one hand, that's an incredibly large number to guarantee to any player. For all intents and purposes, he's a first baseman. It's possible he would have to spend the back half of a 14-year deal as a DH primarily. Part of you would rather give a megadeal like that to someone who plays a more premium defensive position. On the other hand, Guerrero will only be in his age-27 season in the first year of a contract and if you're going to gamble on a skill to age well over a 14-year deal, you'd rather bet on a great hitter than someone whose game is more based off of stealing bases or playing a difficult position like center field.
Bryce Harper says he'd return to outfield if Phillies signed star first basemanhttps://t.co/lMrlzVSHi2
Guerrero has maintained that he's willing to shift back to third base, the position he began his career at, although it's hard to imagine anyone signing him next offseason with the plan of him playing at the hot corner. On the 2026 Phillies, Guerrero would be the first baseman, Bryce Harper would probably shift back to right field and Nick Castellanos could be the primary DH in the final season of his $100 million contract. In this scenario, the Phillies would likely allow Kyle Schwarber to leave in free agency. That isn't a bad plan for a year. But Harper will be in his age-33 season in 2026. How many more years is he realistically going to play in the outfield on a full-time basis if he were to go back out there? And does it make sense to set up a situation where for half a decade or so you have an incredible amount of resources tied into Guerrero and Harper likely spending most of their time at either first base or DH?
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is aware of how quickly sluggers at first base can age, having signed both Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera to megadeals — likely at the urging of late-owner Mike Illitch — when he was leading the Detroit Tigers front office. The Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a five-year/$125 million extension almost two seasons before he could become a free agent. By the time Howard's deal began in 2012, he had already blown out his achilles, an injury he was never the same after. Guerrero will be 27 years old in the first season of a deal, which is very young to hit the open market. But with a 14-year deal, you would be committing to him through his age-40 season. Guerrero isn't just a power hitter, as evidenced by his .288 career batting average. But it's fair to be skeptical about tying yourself to him that late into his career, especially given what Dombrowski and the Phillies have already gone through historically with huge deals to first basemen.
But if Harper's quote to Rosenthal was him dipping his toes into trying to get the Phillies to pursue Guerrero next offseason, expect we'll be talking about the pros and cons of a potential free-agent pursuit pretty frequently over the next 12 months.
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