Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Ace Bailey (4) runs a play Wednesday, March 12, 2025, in a first round game at the 2025 TIAA Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament between the USC Trojans and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Hawkeyes defeated the Buckeyes, 77-70.
There may be only two people capable of delivering the Sixers to a brighter future with the third overall pick in Wednesday's draft.
One is obviously Kevin Costner as Sonny Weaver Jr.
The other, the Sixers are hoping and praying, is Daryl Morey.
It is one of the most significant moments in Morey's career. Hit, and you might successfully pave the elusive 'two timelines' path. Miss, and you might be cleaning out your office next offseason.
No pressure!
As decision time approaches, here's the On Pattison big board for the third pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
The draft cannot come fast enough for the divisive Rutgers star, if only because that means he can only do so much more damage to his stock. The pre-draft strategy that Bailey and agent Omar Cooper followed reeked of arrogance and delusion. So much so, in fact, that an individual with ties to a prominent agency referred to Bailey's representation as "f-----g clowns, the most small time thinking they're big time people possible" in a text message to On Pattison in the moments after news broke that Bailey cancelled his workout with Philadelphia.
He's only 18 - find me someone that age who didn't make some questionable decisions. But this is his career, his business. The lack of self-awareness is a little jarring, even if Bailey is, by all accounts, a good guy.
The thing that is most concerning when you think of using the third pick on him is that Bailey's camp wants to end up with basement-dwellers such as Washington, New Orleans or Brooklyn - because those places offer the clearest paths to stardom. If you'd rather play in a context where there is no pressure to win immediately so that you can enjoy a steady diet of shots, how am I supposed to trust your decision-making and, frankly, competitive spirit in high-leverage games?
Those who are in favor of Bailey will point to his size and shot-making and question how anyone could be blind to his upside and present-day skills. The retort should be, "Besides the occasional defensive play and the highlight reels of difficult jumpers, what exactly is he good at right now?".
Not much. He's an extremely theoretical player who is talked about as a known quantity.
People rave about Edgecombe's character, work ethic and maturity. The Sixers have had quite a bit of success with noted "work ethic" guys in drafts under the current regime (see: Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain). The catch-and-shoot game should translate. The athleticism is incredible. The defensive playmaking and relentless rebounding are sore needs for Philadelphia.
His tape at Baylor offers an interesting contrast to what he showed in the Olympic qualifiers with the Bahamas last summer. You do see some tighter ball-handling and unlocked offensive explosion in the Olympic games, probably because the spacing is better (his teammates are professionals, as opposed to collegiate players at Baylor).
When it comes down to it, Edgecombe is not higher because it's difficult to be confident that he'll materialize into a potent shot-creator, at least in time to be a tentpole of the current team. People have tossed out upside comparisons of Victor Oladipo and Dwyane Wade. You have to squint — hard — to see more than a high-level role player right now.
You can barely accuse him of attempting to play defense at Texas. He can't rebound. But, man, Tre Johnson can shoot the rock. He was lethal off the catch, off the dribble and off screens, shattering freshman scoring records in Rodney Terry's sleepy offense this past season.
His handle has a ways to go. Johnson struggles to create space and relies on a diet of contested jumpers. But the efficiency is impressive, and his pre-draft workouts have received rave reviews. You could tell he was a gamer, taking and making high-leverage shots in hostile environments as an 18-year-old at Texas.
Gotta have two-way players, I know, I know. But Philadelphia knows all too well what happens when you lean on a defensive player who soils his shorts on offense — he's off the court in the playoffs.
Clearly, I lean offense over defense. You need to have players who will make shots when the lights are the brightest. What a concept!
Knueppel did that — not just at college basketball's premier program, but on the biggest stages of college basketball. His tournament was awesome. He looked every bit of Cooper Flagg's co-star.
I know, bottom-percentile athlete, 100th percentile shooter, those guys aren't stars. Here's what I see that makes him different than, say, JJ Redick, Grayson Allen and Mike Dunleavy Jr:
That is not to suggest that I think he will be a primary offensive option like Butler, Doncic or Brunson. Those comparisons are more to explain how polished his offensive repertoire is. Knueppel has great size for his position, even if he'll never be quick or athletic enough to be an elite defensive player. The thing is, he's so well rounded on offense that I'm not sure I care about his defense. It's a little different for Johnson, who has athletic pop that Knueppel does not. If Johnson hits his offensive ceiling, he'll be a star.
If Knueppel hits his offensive ceiling, he might be an All-Star. That probably involves him being a damn sniper on real volume from 30 feet out. But I ultimately have him above Johnson because he makes a variety of decisions, not just to shoot or not to shoot. It matters that his play got better as Duke advanced further in the tournament, environments that Johnson — as fearless as he may be — never reached.
I can't say I blame Johnson for Texas' futility. But I also can't judge the two equally when one's body of work was strong in more taxing situations. And while Johnson proved his fortitude by repeatedly hitting the mark when backs were tightest, Knueppel showed what he was about by making hustle plays.
His nature impressed off the court, as well.
"He was so insanely polished for his age. Professionalism off the charts. I'd love to draft this kid," Bryan Kalbrosky — who interviewed Knueppel — told On Pattison.
I don't know that Knueppel will ever be a star, but I believe that he has perhaps the least amount of downside.
