Kalshi traders are betting on the streaming performances of new songs on Spotify, including Sabrina Carpenter's "Manchild"
Tens of thousands of new songs are added to Spotify daily, but few break through the noise and reach the top of the charts. Most typically, that’s accomplished by already established artists who have built followings and continue to grow their momentum.
June 2025 will be filled with favorite artists returning to the music scene with their latest music. But how will their songs perform on Spotify? Will they exceed expectations or underwhelm? On top prediction market platform Kalshi, traders are predicting how various new songs will perform in their first week on Spotify for a chance to win real money.
If you have a passion for music, you can sign up for Kalshi and trade on music predictions today.
If you are a U.S.-based trader, you can legally trade on one of Kalshi. It is legal because it is a CFTC-regulated exchange, unlike popular alternatives like Polymarket, which are only available to customers outside of the States.
On Kalshi, you can predict the likelihood of an event occurring. In the context of Spotify, it could be the chances of a new song reaching various streaming milestones in its first week. For example, Sabrina Carpenter released a new single on June 5 called “Manchild.”
If her chances of reaching over 35 million streams are 43% and you believe the chances are even higher, you can buy “Yes” shares for 43 cents each. If you think the likelihood is lower than 43%, you can purchase “No” shares for 77 cents. If you are correct in your prediction, you will receive $1 for every share purchased, while incorrect predictions return zero.
June 2025 brings a packed release schedule dominated by albums, since singles are typically announced just days before release, rather than months in advance. While many of these are album releases, artists typically drop a single alongside the album. Singles and album tracks often break through to Spotify's top charts, such as the Weekly Top Songs USA, when the full project is released. Here are the standout tracks poised for chart success.
After a massively successful year of Grammys and chart-topping singles and albums, Carpenter surprised fans with news of a new song, “Manchild.” The song, released on June 5, is widely speculated to be about her recent breakup with actor Barry Keoghan.
Carpenter had a blockbuster 2024 with the release of her No. 1 album, Short n' Sweet. In combination with the drama surrounding her breakup, “Manchild” is poised to attract a huge number of streams. According to Kalshi trades so far, it’s likely to surpass 33 million streams — and possibly more — in its first week (by this Friday).
Addison Rae has successfully made the transition from TikToker to pop star. After releasing a series of successful singles over the past year, Rae released her first album on June 6. While she is unlikely to draw numbers like Sabrina Carpenter or Lorde, she has her own niche and dedicated audience that enjoys her music.
Her recent singles have debuted with around 1 million streams, but this is her debut album, so it’s new territory for her.
Princess of Power also hit the market on June 6. MARINA and Rae’s albums may not overlap significantly in terms of audience. Rae’s audience is much younger, while MARINA’s fans are likely ones who have stuck with her throughout her 15-year career. Princess of Power is the Welsh singer’s sixth studio album.
The album has already spawned three singles — "Butterfly," "Cupid's Girl," and "Cuntissimo." All three songs have garnered 10-16 million Spotify streams, suggesting potentially strong, comparable streaming numbers for her new album.
The legendary rapper Lil Wayne released his 14th studio album on June 6. Again, both MARINA and Rae have different audiences, but they will likely be overshadowed by Wayne’s new album, Tha Carter VI. This is his first album in five years, and he hasn’t dropped a single for it yet. He claimed 2018's Tha Carter V would be the last in the series, but started teasing a new one back in 2020.
Wayne headlined Madison Square Garden for the first time on the night of the album's release. With such a huge fan base and anticipation for the next update in his Tha Carter album series, this album’s Spotify streams will likely blow competitors out of the water. Many of the songs may track at the top of the daily and weekly Spotify charts.
Ye, the artist formerly known as Kanye West, has become a controversial figure over the last few years. His previous album, Donda 2, failed to enter the Billboard Hot 100 chart. However, this is likely due to his scattered messaging. For example, with his upcoming album, Bully, reportedly scheduled for release on June 15, he released three early versions of the album on Twitter on March 18.
Ye is still claiming he will officially release the album on June 15, but we will have to wait and see if he does. With his most recent music, it can really be hit-or-miss and extremely difficult to predict.
Similar to Carpenter, Benson Boone has had a momentous year. Boone received his first Grammy nomination this year for Best New Artist. Moreover, his viral hit “Beautiful Things” was the world’s best-selling song of 2024. Inspired by that success and wanting to take it further, Boone wrote his new album, American Heart, in just 17 days.
The album will be released on June 20, and Boone has already released three singles from the album — “Sorry I’m Here for Someone Else,” “Mystical Magical,” and “Momma Song.” The album’s first single garnered nearly 150 million streams, while the second single has reached 65 million. Given his fans’ love of his rootsy “old-school” sound, an effective single paired with the album's release could help boost streams.
The three-sister band will be releasing their first album in five years, I Quit. Similar to other artists, they are capitalizing on nostalgia, and the artwork for the album is reminiscent of paparazzi photos from the 2000s. The album is scheduled for release on June 20.
The album’s first single, “Relationships,” performed impressively and has garnered 17 million listens, but the other singles have significantly fewer streams. Their latest single, “Take Me Back,” had less than 1 million streams in five days. However, the middle two singles have about 3 million streams. This suggests the streams will reach a similar range for whichever single they release with the album.
Virgin will be Lorde’s fourth studio album, and her first one since 2021. Lorde has released two singles ahead of the album’s June 27 release date. Both of which have performed well in terms of Spotify streams. In just over a month, the lead single, “What I Want,” has around 65 million streams. “Man of the Year,” the second single, was released on May 28 and has about 7.6 million streams. Her third single will likely reach a range similar to the second single.
Several factors could drive a song’s first-week performance. Here are just a few to help you get started.
Check if Spotify is promoting the song. If Spotify features the artist on the cover of their New Music Friday playlist or if the song is placed at the top of the playlist, those can be strong indicators of the song's success.
You can also track the daily streams of the song. Have the streams increased or decreased from day to day? With the help of these numbers, you can calculate its trajectory and determine where it might land by the end of its first week.
You can also look at Spotify’s Today’s Top Hits playlist to see where the song is placing relative to its competition. If it’s 20th on the playlist, it would be more challenging to build on its momentum than if it were first or second.
Lastly, consider other sources to determine if the song is gaining popularity or not. On YouTube, you can track the music video’s views. On TikTok, take a look at how many times the song has been used. On X, check conversations to see if people are discussing these songs.
With June 2025 packed with releases from Sabrina Carpenter to Lil Wayne, tracking playlist placements and daily stream counts will be crucial for predicting which songs break through.
Sign up for Kalshi today to trade on Spotify streaming and other music markets.
