Jul 18, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Emmanuel Clase (48) throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the Athletics at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
The final two weeks of July are always a cornucopia of trade rumors released and trade rumors debunked.
Then there are those where there is credible information on both sides, and you are left to sleuth the solution out for yourself and see if you get it right.
Someone should make a board game out of this and fundraise on Kickstarter.
Guess whether a trade rumor is legit or bogus. Wager funny money on your assertion based on clues provided.
Get it right, double your money, and move three spaces on the board.
The first to use wily deductions to put the most rumors in the proper buckets and reach the Commissioner's Trophy square with more money than you started with is declared the winner.
Let's play a round.
There were reports in the last two weeks about the Phillies being interested in Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase, among others.
He's just the kind of high-end reliever the team should be targeting. He's signed for another year after this one and has not one, but two team options for 2027 and 2028 at a very team friendly dollar figure (the remainder of $4.9 million for 2025, $6.4 million in 2026 and then team options at $10 million in each of 2027 and 2028).
Clase wouldn't be cheap, with that kind of control left, but there are also reports that the Phillies are willing to give up more capital than in the past to acquire players who can help the team chase a World Series ring both this season and in future years.
It makes a lot of sense.
But so does this report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post:
Guardians are listening on relievers, including stars Smith and Clasé. Prices are understandably high. They are seen as not too likely to trade either top pen guy, and with MLB’s easiest closing schedule, they aren’t even a certain seller
First of all, reports like this drive me crazy. The Guardians are listening. Prices are high. They are not seen as likely to trade either Clase or Cade Smith.
So, in other words, tell me what every team in every sport does when they talk to other teams, just word salad the hell out of it, why don't ya?
Let me break it down simply:
1. Executives talk to each other all the time.
2. They ask each other about players in those conversations, many times asking about players that are unlikely to be traded.
3. The executive with the player sets a price tag that is arbitrarily high.
4. Guys likely don't get traded.
It's crazy to bait you with one possibility only to hammer you with the alternative in the second part of the same tweet.
But it's the second part of that tweet that is what is most interesting.
The Guardians are near the beginning of a stretch of 20 straight games against teams with records at or below .500. Then, after three games in New York with the Jekyll and Hyde Mets, they have 15 more against sub-.500 opponents before things get a little more competitive at the end of August and beginning of September.
With such an easy schedule, wouldn't it behoove the Guardians to hang on to both Clase and Smith to see if they can close the 4 1/2 game gap between themselves and the last playoff teams?
After all, this is a Cleveland team that went to the ALCS a season ago.
That part of the report seems to have more meat on it than the first part. If you're the Guardians, why move on from controllable assets now when they will still be controllable both in the offseason and next year's deadline?
Couple that with the fact that their schedule is a bit easier than most, they play in a weak division and could catch up to the three A.L. East teams who have a bunch of games against one another, or the Seattle Mariners rather quickly, and you can see why Cleveland might be less-inclined to part with one of these big names.
But the biggest clue of all could have come from the Phillies, specifically managing partner John Middleton.
When he spoke to the media on Friday, he had one line that ties really neatly into this report from Heyman:
👂🎧 John Middleton gave @TimKellySports a very candid answer when discussing balancing wanting to keep prospects with trying to maximize this World Series window. pic.twitter.com/x6BzKojui7
"By the way, some players you think we should be getting, they're not going to be available," Middleton said. "And other players you want us to get, they're going to be available and it's going to [cost] an arm and a leg and we're going to say no."
So without further ado, the brilliant deduction here is, the Phillies won't be getting Clase.
Just hand me the $200 as I pass Go. Thanks.
