Jul 10, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Jeff Hoffman (23) celebrates final out against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports Eric Hartline
Jeff Hoffman — the Phillies' best reliever over the last two seasons — has departed in free agency.
Hoffman and the Toronto Blue Jays agreed to a three-year/$33 million deal on Friday evening:
OFFICIAL: We’ve signed All-Star RHP Jeff Hoffman to a 3-year deal ⭐️
Welcome Back, @Hoff_23! pic.twitter.com/A1tN8zOGjV
For Hoffman, he returns to the team that selected him with the No. 9 overall pick in the 2014 MLB Draft. Hoffman never actually made an MLB appearance for the Blue Jays in his first stint in the organization, as he was traded to the Colorado Rockies in the July 2015 deal that brought Troy Tulowitzki to Toronto.
By now, you know the story with how Hoffman's career progressed from there. He posted a 5.68 ERA across his first 134 MLB appearances — 50 of which were starts — for the Rockies and Cincinnati Reds. He came to the Phillies on a minor-league deal in March of 2023 after failing to make the Opening Day roster of the Minnesota Twins. Despite struggling over limited appearances at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, the Phillies promoted Hoffman to the majors in May because he had otherwise planned to opt out and pursue an opportunity overseas. Prior to his promotion, Hoffman had impressed in a live batting practice session at Citizens Bank Park where he dominated Bryce Harper, who was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Hoffman went on to post a 2.28 ERA across 122 relief appearances for the Phillies between 2023 and 2024, making the All-Star Game in the second of those seasons. He did run out of gas in 2024, though, allowing six earned runs over three postseason relief appearances as the Phillies were upset by the New York Mets in four games.
On multiple occasions in 2024, Hoffman expressed a desire to remain with the Phillies. This included after Game 4 of the NLDS at Citi Field, when the Phillies were eliminated:
Jeff Hoffman: “Yeah, it sucks. All-Star wasn’t one of my goals, World Series was.” @PhilliesNation @OnPattison pic.twitter.com/K5aMhQVg9L
However, the relief market moved slowly this offseason, and it made sense for Hoffman to wait things out. Heck, Hoffman evidently drew interest as a starter this winter. But given that the Blue Jays had a 4.82 bullpen ERA a year ago, it looks like they intend to keep Hoffman in the bullpen:
In statement, Ross Atkins says Jeff Hoffman, “will get an opportunity to close games for us this season."
Blue Jays GM adds that Hoffman's "arsenal, strike throwing and ability to miss bats against all types of hitters is elite and will undoubtedly make us better."
The Phillies could have waited out the market for Hoffman. A three-year/$33 million deal — which Shi Davidi of Sportsnet says includes $6 million in incentives — is hardly an overpay. Over on Bleacher Report, I predicted a three-year/$39 million deal for Hoffman at the beginning of the offseason. MLB Trade Rumors thought Hoffman would sign a four-year/$44 million deal.
But the Phillies chose to be aggressive early in the offseason, signing Jordan Romano — who, ironically, was non-tendered by the Blue Jays — to a one-year/$8.5 million deal on Dec. 9. The Phillies are taking a risk on Romano rebounding physically after right elbow inflammation limited him to just 15 games last year. But Romano was an All-Star in each of the two prior seasons, posting a 2.49 ERA and recording 72 saves. If Romano gets hurt early in 2025, the Phillies will have egg on their face. But if he rebounds, he could prove to be one of the most shrewd signings of the offseason.
Dombrowski seemed to indicate before the New Year that the Phillies probably weren't going to bring Hoffman back. As On Pattison's Anthony SanFilippo noted, given that the Phillies are currently projected to be over a $301 million payroll — which will come with a 110% tax on all overages — signing Hoffman would have cost the Phillies more than it did for the Blue Jays:
Just to be clear, if the Phillies would have offered Hoffman the same contract as Toronto, because of the tax penalty, instead of paying him $11 million this year, that contract would have amounted to $23 million in 2025.
That’s why it wasn’t going to happen here. https://t.co/pyJPrcH7eY
Of course, the Phillies could have let Romano sign elsewhere and waited for Hoffman's market to play out, knowing there are still a bunch of really good relievers available. They chose not to. The biggest difference is Romano only took a one-year commitment, as opposed to three for Hoffman. The Phillies have been hesitant to give more than two years to relievers under president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. He was asked about that dynamic last month.
"Well, if Mariano Rivera was there, I'd be happy to go four years," Dombrowski joked.
"You know, there's just a lot of inconsistencies in relievers in general. It's more of a philosophical type of thing that some of the inconsistencies [make the Phillies hesitant]. But I have to tell you, it's not a steadfast rule by any means. It just depends upon who the guys out there are at this time."
In recent years, though, players like Josh Hader and Devin Williams have been available, either via free agency or trade. The Phillies have not dedicated resources towards making those moves. Hoffman isn't in that class, but he was really good as a Phillie, and by all accounts, wanted to stay. They instead are banking on the rebound of Romano. And if Romano rebounds in 2025 and is looking for a three-year deal next offseason, recent history tells you the Phillies will churn the back-end of the bullpen rather than meeting that asking price.
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