Feb 12, 2025; Clearwater, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola (27) prepares to warm up during a spring training workout at Carpenter Complex Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images Jonathan Dyer
For whatever reason, Aaron Nola has had much better success in his career in even years than odd years. The Phillies will hope he can change his odd-year fortunes in 2025.
Consider Nola's results over his last seven seasons:
2018: 2.37 ERA, 3.01 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 17 home runs allowed, 5.5 WAR, 212 1/3 innings pitched
2019: 3.87 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.27 WHIP, 27 home runs allowed, 3.4 WAR, 202 1/3 innings pitched
2020 (COVID-shortened season): 3.28 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, nine home runs allowed, 2.0 WAR, 71 1/3 innings pitched
2021: 4.63 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 26 home runs allowed, 4.4 WAR, 180 2/3 innings pitched
2022: 3.25 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, 19 home runs allowed, 6.3 WAR, 205 innings pitched
2023: 4.46 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 32 home runs allowed, 3.9 WAR, 193 2/3 innings pitched
2024: 3.57 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 30 home runs allowed, 3.2 WAR, 199 1/3 innings pitched
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So over the last four even-year campaigns — which includes the 60-game season of 2020 — Nola has a 3.07 ERA. During his last three odd-year seasons, Nola has a 4.31 ERA.
One obvious area where Nola needs to improve in odd years is in terms of limiting home runs, even solo shots. He has a 0.98 HR/9 in his last four even-year campaigns. But it's at 1.33 in odd years.
There are other player who have had trends like this.
Between 1985 and 1990, Bret Saberhagen won two AL Cy Young Awards and was worth 18.9 WAR in odd years. In even years, Saberhagen — the ace of the Kansas City Royals — accumulated 11.9 WAR.
A more modern example might be Texas Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien, who has been an AL MVP finalist three times in his career, all in odd years — 2019, 2021 and 2023.
So again, Nola isn't the only player who has had a bit of an every-other-year dynamic. The problem is, this is now what has traditionally been his off year.
It should be noted that whether it's been an even or an odd year, Nola has continued to be the most durable pitcher of his era. Since 2018, the fewest amount of innings that Nola has logged in a full 162-game season is 180 2/3 in 2021. That means even in years where the rest of his back-of-the-baseball-card stats don't look great, he's still providing value.
But he's finished seventh or higher in NL Cy Young Award voting on three occasions, all of which (2018, 2020, 2022) have come in even years. The Phillies hope that 2025 will become the first odd year Nola finishes among the senior circuit's top starters.
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