Oct 8, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher Sean Manaea (59) reacts in the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies during game three of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images Vincent Carchietta
The NL East appears to be a three-way race between the Phillies, Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. Of that trio, the franchise historically known for things not breaking their way is already dealing with some injury issues.
The Mets made the biggest signing of the offseason by inking five-time Silver Slugger Award winner Juan Soto to a record-shattering 15-year, $765 million deal. They also brought back slugging first baseman Pete Alonso after a prolonged stint in free agency. A lineup that also includes Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos and Brandon Nimmo projects to be really good in 2025.
However, New York has a lot less certainty in their starting rotation, and things have become even less clear since they arrived at Port St. Lucie earlier this month.
Frankie Montas — whom president of baseball operations David Stearns signed to a two-year/$34 million deal in free agency —sustained a lat injury that between a six-to-eight week shutdown and then needing to be built back up again after could cause him to miss most or all of the first half of this season.
Meanwhile, Sean Manaea had been likely to be the Opening Day starter for the Mets, but suffered a right oblique strain. MLB.com's Anthony DiComo says that this injury will come with just a two-week shutdown, and the veteran lefty could still be back at some point in April. Still, it doesn't feel like a great omen as the Mets try to compete with the Phillies and Braves, who each have a chance to have top-five rotations in baseball.
Manaea revived his career with the Mets last season, and then signed a three-year/$75 million deal to return in free agency. After posting a 3.47 ERA across 181 2/3 innings last season, the Mets are counting on the 33-year-old southpaw to be their ace. They'll have to wait at least a couple weeks into the season to see if he can be that.
It's not that the Mets don't have talent in their starting rotation, but there's not much in the way of certainty. Luis Severino departed in free agency for the Athletics. Lefty David Peterson posted a 2.90 ERA across 121 innings last year and appears to be a guy for the Mets. But multiple injuries limited Kodai Senga to just one regular-season start in 2024 after he was an All-Star in his first MLB campaign the year prior. The Mets gave Clay Holmes a three-year/$38 million deal in free agency, hoping that they'll be able to turn his elite stuff into both consistent control and an ability to move from high-leverage relief into the starting rotation. But that's a roll of the dice.
When compared to the projected starting rotations of the Phillies and Braves, the Mets do appear to be lacking, especially with these injuries factored in.
1. Zack Wheeler
2. Cristopher Sánchez
3. Aaron Nola
4. Ranger Suárez
5. Jesús Luzardo
1. Chris Sale
2. Reynaldo López
3. Spencer Schwellenbach
4. Grant Holmes
5. Ian Anderson
1. Kodai Senga
2. David Peterson
3. Clay Holmes
4. Paul Blackburn
5. Griffin Canning
Aaron Nola to @TimKellySports on his excitement to see and work with Andrew Painter. pic.twitter.com/xuPEJpFqOd
Mind you, the Braves have Spencer Strider—one of the best starters in baseball when healthy—expected to be back during the first half of the season as he returns from an internal brace procedure. The Phillies have top prospect Andrew Painter looming at some point this summer, not to mention Joe Ross in the bullpen as possible insurance. Luzardo is going to be the No. 5 starter for the Phillies to open the season, but right now, he would either be the first or second arm in the Mets rotation.
Obviously, the season has to play out. A year ago, the Mets rotation looked thin, only for Manaea and Severino to revive their careers and help the team reach the NLCS. The Braves rotation carries quite a bit of injury risk. The Phillies have some uncertainty at the back-end of their bullpen. But if you're looking for a way to separate the Phillies, Braves and Mets on Feb. 24, the first two appear to be in much better spots with their starting pitching.
Want more Philadelphia Phillies news delivered straight to your inbox? Sign up for THE Philly Sports Newsletter here. 100% free, always
