Apr 13, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) celebrates with first base Bryce Harper (3) after hitting a home run during the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Bill Streicher
Every week, (except the past two... but we were preoccupied with a certain football team), On Pattison's Tim Kelly and Anthony SanFilippo will answer your Phillies questions from social media. Let's get to it.
@Brianmpysher on X: Why should anyone care about this upcoming season? Quicker eliminations 3 straight years and standing pat this offseason can’t have many fans excited.
@KevinMcGuire on Threads: I’m struggling to figure out how to approach this season as a fan. After the Eagles won the Super Bowl, I need a Phillies World Series title. They have raised the bar in recent years only to fall short. Is this truly a World Series caliber roster ready to get the job done? Or should I be prepared for another disappointment with an early postseason exit?
Tim Kelly: I'm not disputing that there are concerns about whether the Phillies can win enough games in the playoffs where they don't hit multiple home runs to finish off a World Series run.
At the same time, the Phillies are 20-14 (.588) in the postseason over the last three years. It's not like this is a team that's consistently getting swept in the first round of the playoffs.
Specifically in regards to the first of the two questions, you're not going to have a lot of fun watching sports with that type of perspective. It's also just not true that the Phillies stood pat this past offseason. They did shake up the bullpen, and we'll see how that plays out. Jesús Luzardo, if healthy, would be a No. 2 starter on a lot of teams. Starting pitching perhaps wasn't a major need for the Phillies, although how much better would they have been in the second half of last year with Luzardo and/or Andrew Painter pitching every fifth day when they couldn't stabilize that spot?
You can't guarantee a World Series coming into the season, which is one of the fun parts of baseball. The Phillies are not the favorite to win it all. But are they one of the five or six best teams? Probably. We'll see what happens in October, but in the meantime, enjoy the ride.
Jesús Luzardo, Ranger Suárez and Zack Wheeler — 3/5 of the expected Opening Day rotation — are all throwing bullpens right now. @OnPattison pic.twitter.com/NWB1LdOrV5
Anthony SanFilippo: Why should you care about the season? Because you have a team who is going to be in the mix — again — for a potential World Series championship.
By no means is that a statement of guarantee that the Phillies will even be in the World Series, let alone win it. But they will almost certainly be one of the 12 teams playing for it in October, and that's reason enough.
Assuming that just because they played two bad games against Arizona in October 2023 and then messed the bed in October against a smoking-hot Mets team in 2024 is indicative of what will happen in 2025 is ludicrous.
Go back and look at the two previous campaigns of recent World Series winners.
In other words, sometimes you have to deal with multiple bitter defeats before you reach the mountaintop.
Of course, there are just as many teams who do what the Phillies have done in recent years and never get there, so this isn't a rose-colored glasses thing. The Phillies could very well disappoint again in 2025.
But you won't know how it plays out and it won't be worth it in the end unless you are invested, and the team is certainly good enough to be worth that investment.
@SixersAdam on X: Who is your favorite to win the last bullpen spot? (Walker/Lazar/Crismatt/Mercado/Phillips/etc.)
Tim Kelly: I'm not sure what to make of Taijuan Walker. He looks bulked up this year, and we'll see if he gets better results when Grapefruit League play begins. Even if he looks great, are the Phillies going to keep him as a long man if there aren't any injuries in the starting rotation? Given that he's due $36 million over the next two seasons, you can't rule it out.
But if you're trying to build the best bullpen, I think Nabil Crismatt — who did have a 2.94 ERA over 50 games for the 2022 San Diego Padres — would probably be the best pick. The 30-year-old is a non-roster invitee. I'm not sure if he has an opt-out, but I would guess there's a real chance the Phillies lose him if he doesn't make the Opening Day roster.
Koyo Aoyagi is apparently willing to go to Triple-A Lehigh Valley if he doesn't break camp with the club. Max Lazar and Michael Mercado both have remaining minor-league options. Tyler Phillips does not, although he may clear waivers.
Right now, I'd lean Crismatt.
Koyo Aoyagi is throwing his first bullpen as a Phillie. Among those watching are Dave Dombrowski, Preston Mattingly, Jorge Velandia, Rob Thomson, Caleb Cotham and J.T. Realmuto. pic.twitter.com/KWUkjcyCUv
Anthony SanFilippo: I'm not sure it matters. And frankly, if you go by recent history, the guys who get that gig don't usually make it through the first month of the season.
Remember Connor Brogdon last year and Andrew Bellatti the year before? The guys who were the biggest impacts the past two years were non-roster guys guys who came up in May — Jeff Hoffman and José Ruiz.
So, while a guy like Crismatt may well be the guy who sticks, I'm not convinced he's the guy who starts the season. The Phillies may give Phillips one last shot before sending him to the waiver wire. Or, they could use Lazar because he has multiple options left, and he's likely going to ride that train back and forth to Triple-A at some point this season anyway.
Finally, I believe Walker is an insurance policy only at this point. Keep him around in case one of the starters gets hurt, otherwise, they'll figure out a way to move on from him, even if it costs them a lot of dead money.
@SammyBlake on Threads: How's the new bullpen shaping up? Who's going to fill Hoffman's shoes? Do we have an eye on a dedicated closer yet? Is it Alvarado?
Tim Kelly: Obviously, a lot of this is going to depend on Jordan Romano's ability to stay healthy a year after right elbow inflammation limited him to just 15 games.
If Romano gets hurt early and needs surgery, it will be like David Robertson in 2019 where the Phillies have egg on their face. But if he's healthy, this is someone who posted a 2.37 ERA and recorded 95 saves over 184 games between 2021 and 2023. He'll seize the closer's job and be a bargain at $8.5 million if healthy.
José Alvarado is another big name worth watching. He's in tremendous shape this spring, and his stuff is still electric. It's a big year for him, as the Phillies have a $9 million club option with just a $500,000 buyout for Alvarado in 2026. All parties involved would love for Alvarado to pitch so well that picking up that option becomes a realistic possibility.
Me: You look like you’re in amazing shape this year.
José Alvarado: “Me?! No, same guy.”
He went on to say that he ate more protein this offseason and worked very hard.
“I focused to change my body a little bit. I feel good, and now I’m here.” https://t.co/fHSwjxmjFo
Anthony SanFilippo: Tim got this one right. Romano will close games. Alvarado and Matt Strahm will be your late-inning lefties and the one guy he didn't mention — Orion Kerkering — will be the guy who steps into the Hoffman role.
Kerkering has the stuff to be that back-end-of-the-bullpen guy. He finished his first full season with really solid numbers despite about a month of inconsistency from mid-July to mid-August. Outside of that blip, he was as dominant as Hoffman and Strahm were last season.
They'll be your top four.
After that, you have the righty/lefty combo of Ruiz and Tanner Banks for the middle inning roles and the signing that I think will fly under the radar as a really good one for the Phillies is Joe Ross. Yes, they are stretching him out to start, if necessary, so he's probably considered the long guy, but once he moved into a full-time relief role with Milwaukee last season, he was superb. In 22 appearances he threw 27 innings and had a 1.67 ERA and opposing batters had a paltry .575 OPS against him. He just might be a pleasant surprise.
@Thirtyballparks on Threads: What’s the maximum years/dollars you would spend to extend J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber? Both are important to current team’s prospects but how much do you want to tie up money that could be used elsewhere down the road?
Tim Kelly: I think for either, the maximum number of years I'd guarantee in an extension — particularly since you aren't bidding against anyone right now — is two. Realmuto is a catcher that's going to turn 34 next month, and while Schwarber seems likely to see more time in the field in 2025 than he did a year ago, he's still best-suited as a DH at this point.
A two-year extension for Realmuto would carry him through the 2027 season, at which point catching prospect Eduardo Tait — who is currently 18 years old — might be ready to take over.
I think a two-year extension in the $45-$50 range would be a fair deal for Schwarber. He's homered 131 times in three seasons with the Phillies and is the de-facto captain. It's hard to imagine the Phillies being a better team without him in 2026, although you do have to be careful as Bryce Harper and Trea Turner age not to clog up the DH spot for too many years.
Anthony SanFilippo: I tend to agree with Tim here, although I can see a world where you move on from one or both of them as well.
That said, I'd probably be willing to add in a third year option in both cases. Maybe Realmuto is the primary guy in 2026 and 2027 and then moves more to a split role, or backup role in 2028, if you pick up that option year.
As for Schwarber, he brings value in the future even if he devolves into more of a part-time player. Imagine having him as the power bat off the bench in a key moment in 2028 on the regular? That's a luxury — and one the Phillies can afford to spend to have in their dugout.
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