Jul 15, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Brandon Marsh (16) celebrates with shortstop Trea Turner (7) after scoring during the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Bill Streicher
The Phillies will open the 2025 season at 4:05 against the Washington Nationals on March 27. Lefty MacKenzie Gore will likely get the ball for the Nats. Here's the second look at what Rob Thomson's Opening Day lineup could look like at Nationals Park.
Thomson has hinted at tweaking the lineup enough this offseason that it almost feels like he needs to do it to open the season. And Thomson said "you're probably talking about Trea" when asked on "The Phillies Show" who else could lead off other than Schwarber:
Turner has hit .279 across two uneven seasons to start his Phillies tenure. If he regains the form he showed from 2020-2022 —when he hit .316 — he'll be a great option at the top of the order.
The two-time NL MVP is very comfortable in the three-hole, and if he's intent on remaining there, that's likely what will happen.
But Thomson did crack the door open for moving Harper up in the lineup if Schwarber is no longer the leadoff hitter on "The Phillies Show".
"I think we'll play with it during Spring Training and see where it goes and see what the best fit for us is," Thomson said. "And maybe it's a situation where if we're facing a lefty we do one thing, if we're facing a righty we do another thing. Maybe it's moving [Kyle] Schwarber behind [Bryce] Harper to protect Harper more ... which, maybe that moves Harper up in the lineup a little bit ... not leadoff, but maybe two."
The reality is, wherever Harper hits, he's going to be effective.
It's possible the Phillies could have Schwarber here to protect Harper, but breaking up the lefties still might be the best strategy.
Bohm has hit .312 with runners in scoring position across parts of five MLB seasons. Hitting between Harper and Schwarber would give him a chance to not only move runners, but drive in a bunch of runs.
From @TimKellySports: Phillies Nuggets: 4 storylines I'll be watching during Spring Traininghttps://t.co/MAEg5oqjFn
Even if Schwarber isn't the leadoff hitter on Opening Day, don't rule out the possibility that he winds up back there. The Phillies have won a ton of games with him at the top of the order, and it's pretty deflating to opposing teams to immediately be down 1-0 at the start of a game.
With that said, if the Phillies can get someone else to click in the No. 1 hole, having Schwarber come up with runners on base more frequently isn't a bad idea.
For what it's worth, Schwarber has a .271 batting average with 20 home runs, 45 RBIs and a .928 OPS in 81 career games hitting out of the cleanup spot.
Castellanos is a creature of habit, and explained why he prefers hitting in the middle of the order last season:
Nick Castellanos: “…my style of hitting, which is always like glorified batting practice … I don’t really have an approach, I look for the baseball and hit it as hard as I can…” @PhilliesNation pic.twitter.com/HmZbzbPp6C
A year ago, Castellanos got off to an ice-cold start, hitting .193 with 28 strikeouts in March/April. However, he was one of the best hitters on the team in the second half of the season, hitting .287 with an .839 OPS after the All-Star Break.
In our first projection, Stott was leading off. However, Thomson kind of poured cold water on the idea of Stott leading off in the aforementioned interview on "The Phillies Show."
"Well the thing is that we're so left-handed," Thomson said. "And you want Harper and you want Schwarber getting as many at-bats as you can. And now you put Stott in the leadoff spot, now you're really left-handed at the top. It might create a problem. Even if you're facing a right-hander ... you know, everybody's got three lefties in the 'pen it seems anymore. And they'll just start matching up on you."
So, the six-spot it is for Stott, who is looking to rebound after hitting .245 a season ago.
Realmuto may not be the offensive force he was at the height of his powers anymore, but the .757 OPS he's posted over the last two seasons still makes him one of the better catchers in the league when you consider his elite baserunning ability and tremendous arm behind the plate.
While he may be spelled a little more frequently this season than in the past, Realmuto still sounds intent on playing as much as possible in his contract year.
Perhaps Marsh won't be in the lineup when the Phillies face someone like reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale, but there is a case to be made for giving him a little more runway against left-handed pitching in the first half of the season and seeing whether he sinks or swims.
Marsh hit .229 with a .717 OPS against left-handed pitchers in 2023, which isn't great, but also isn't unplayable. However, he regressed to a .192 average with 33 strikeouts and a .552 OPS in 90 plate appearances against southpaws a season ago. There's nothing wrong with being a platoon player, specifically a left-handed hitting one. But if the 27-year-old wants to be more than that, he needs to begin to show that he isn't a liability when lefties are on the mound, and Opening Day against Gore would be a good place to start.
Like Marsh, Kepler has to answer questions about whether he can hit left-handed pitching, which is why signing him to join such a left-handed heavy lineup was a bit surprising.
For his part, Kepler — who has hit .221 with a .655 OPS against left-handed pitching in 10 MLB seasons — doesn't believe he's a platoon player.
"To be honest, I don't view myself as someone who struggles against lefties," he said during his introductory Zoom in January.
He did add that he has struggled at times against lefties.
"There's been, obviously, a couple years in my career where I struggled against lefties," Kepler acknowledged. "But it's not like I struggled every single year."
That's true. In fact, while 2024 was a disappointing season for Kepler — who later had core muscle surgery — he actually fared better against lefties than righties in 2024, albeit in a much smaller sample size.
Vs. RHP (317 plate appearances): .247 batting average, .672 OPS
Vs. LHP (82 plate appearances): .273 batting average, .721 OPS
The Phillies don't need Kepler to hit better against lefties than righties in 2025. But if he proves capable of playing against pitchers from both sides, his one-year/$10 million deal will look like a shrewd investment by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. If not, Weston Wilson will have a major role for the Phillies this upcoming season.
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