Justin Crawford is one of the top prospects in the Phillies organization. (Cheryl Pursell)
As things stand now, it appears that Justin Crawford will be the Opening Day starting center fielder for the Phillies. It will be fun to finally get to see what the former first-round pick looks like at the MLB level, because credible talent evaluators have been divided on him during his ascent through the minors.
One evaluator that typically is correct in his projections is Aram Leighton of Just Baseball, and he's had some reservations about Crawford. Leighton recently added Crawford to his top 100 prospects in baseball, but did so at No. 90. Other outlets like MLB Pipeline are higher on Crawford, ranking him as the 54th-best prospect in the sport.
Leighton joined Anthony SanFilippo and myself on the latest episode of Phillies Stoplight🚦and explained both why his outlook on Crawford has improved and why he still has him ranked lower than some other publications.
"I think it's one of those instances where you see the production, and you can't deny it," Leighton said. "But a big part of the job, the hardest part of the job is, 'OK, we see the production, how is that going to translate at the highest level?'"
Leighton then pointed to Kristian Campbell, who tore through the minor leagues and made the Boston Red Sox Opening Day roster this past season with a new eight-year deal in hand. But after hitting .330 with a .997 OPS across three levels of the minors in 2024, Campbell hit .223 with a .664 OPS in his first 67 MLB games. He was optioned to Triple-A in mid-June, and didn't return to the majors the rest of the 2025 season.
Campbell is still only 23, so he may very well go on to still have a strong career. But some of the shine is off after he hit a wall in his first stint at the MLB level.
One of the trends that has scared off some evaluators even while Crawford has gotten strong results in the minors is his ground ball percentage, who has hovered around 60% for much of his minor-league career. That's an unusually-high clip, and the concern is that you may be able to leg out some ground balls at Double-A Reading that you won't be able to in the majors.
"I think there's some similar deficiencies [as with Campbell], but the difference is with Justin Crawford, even when he's not hitting, you're gonna get value on the basepaths, you're gonna get good defense in center.
"He did make some adjustments later in the season that I thought were encouraging," Leighton continued. "It's been a 60% ground ball rate like his entire professional career, but he still continues to be productive. Then in the final 30 games or so, he cut that down to just 52%, which is still high [but better]. And all of a sudden, he's hitting more homers, he's slugging more."
So you could look at the concern surrounding Crawford's ground ball rate a couple ways. Yes, it might be an indicator that he's going to struggle to adjust at the majors. Or, he's had success hitting the ball on the ground consistently, and if he has to make some adjustments, there's already been some small indicators that he's going to be capable of doing that.
Can Justin Crawford's production translate from Triple-A to the Phillies? @AramLeighton8 discussed Crawford's 2026 outlook with @TimKellySports and @AntSanPhilly on Phillies Stoplight🚦 pic.twitter.com/YDSMQpxXv7
To play devil's advocate, I acknowledged to Leighton that while the ground ball rate has given me some pause, I thought you would begin to see his results dip at Triple-A. Instead, he .334 in 112 games for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs in his age-21 season.
"That's the thing," Leighton said with a smile.
"Once you get to Triple-A — and the majors is even more different where they'll see you take one swing and they say, 'OK, we know we need to bust this guy in.' And that's gonna happen. I don't think he's a guy that you look at and say he's going to help us right away. Like there will be a process there, and that's OK. And I encourage Phillies fans to be patient with him, as they should be with prospects.
"But doing that in Triple-A, where those pitchers, a lot of them are big leaguers, the catchers are veterans ... they know, 'OK, he's got a high ground ball rate and heavy stuff down.' He still was able to make it work enough, and that makes me confident he's going to be able to figure it out at the next level as well."
Assuming Crawford is in the Opening Day lineup for the Phillies when they host the Texas Rangers on March 26, he'll likely be the No. 9 hitter. Perhaps that will change as the season goes along, but the Phillies are likely to give Crawford some low-pressure runway early in the season without doing a ton of tinkering with him. With his offensive performance in the minors, he's earned that opportunity.
As for what position Crawford will be at, center would seem to be the most likely option given both that Adolis García was signed to play right field and that Brandon Marsh is better in left field than center field. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has acknowledged that there some differing views internally about whether Crawford will wind up as a left or center fielder at the majors. Anthony asked Leighton where he stands on Crawford's defensive position.
"I really do see it very similarly," Leighton said. "I think he has all the tools to be good out there. He's moved really quickly too, so he hasn't had that many reps. It's easy to forget. And I just think the reads are still sometimes, where you can see the ball off the bat and a lot of guys are a little bit more instinctual, a little bit quicker that first step. But I still think he's got the speed, he seems to track the ball alright.
"Like you said, he can go play a big league corner right now. And I think he can play a fine center field. It's just, typically in the major leagues, you usually have a good center field option. So I think he'll get there, but that's another reason why I think they can take their time and have him play in Triple-A a little bit longer."
Unless the Phillies bring back Harrison Bader — and perhaps even if they do — it would seem the Phillies believe Crawford has proven all he can in the minors. Will he be able to succeed in the majors hitting the ball on the ground so consistently? Can he give the Phillies more value defensively by sticking in center field? We'll begin to find out in late March.
