Aug 17, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws to the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-Imagn Images
When the Phillies announced the scary news on Saturday that Zack Wheeler was being put on the I.L. with a blood clot near his pitching shoulder, from a baseball perspective, there was at least the silver lining that at least Aaron Nola was coming back after a three-month stint on the injured list to take his place.
The silver shined for two innings on Sunday. Then, in the third inning it turned a much darker shade of grey.
You know, the kind of grey that usually let's you know a bad storm is rolling in.
After two pretty solid innings in which he looked like his vintage self, the third inning for Nola looked a lot like the guy who was pitching at the beginning of the season and was getting shelled on the regular.
He was still getting ahead of hitters, but he suddenly stopped locating pitches and the young Nationals lineup teed off on him.
After he struck out Brady House to start the third inning, the Nats went single, single, single, walk, single, double, double off Nola.
The Phillies had built a six-run lead for Nola going into that inning. By the time Rob Thomson pulled Nola, it was 6-6.
The Nationals tattooed Aaron Nola for six runs in the third inning to tie the game in his first start since May pic.twitter.com/8sfinMZ7bo
The Phillies would go on to win 11-9, the offense coming to their starter's rescue, but this wasn't a good sign.
Sure, it's easy to say a pitcher who hadn't faced major league hitting for three months might struggle in his first time out, but the Phillies intentionally tried to give Nola a bit of a soft landing by facing a very inexperienced Washington club. Add on the six-run cushion, and Nola should have been able to work out any kinks that were there without much damage.
Except, that's not what happened.
Of the six guys who got hits off him in the third inning, Nola was ahead in the count on four of them. He then just made bad pitches.
Robert Hassel's single came on a sinker that didn't reach 90MPH and caught too much of the strike zone. The pitch to Daylen Lile was a cutter that didn't cut and was right down the heart of the plate that Lile ripped to right for a single. The pitch to Jose Tena that tied the score was another cutter that was elevated and in Tena's happy zone.
If you flash back to May, when Ranger Suarez made his first start of the season after missing the first five weeks with a back injury, he was clobbered by Arizona, giving up seven runs and seven hits in 3 2/3 innings. He then proceeded to make 12 straight starts where he pitched between six and seven innings and gave up three-or-fewer runs, two-or-fewer in 10 of them.
So, it's possible that this was just one of those "get-the-feel" back games after a long layoff.
The difference is, Nola was having the same problems before his layoff that cropped up again on Sunday.
Nola is never going to blow hitters away. He doesn't have that kind of velocity. He is successful by keeping hitters off balance with a wide array of pitches, and then hitting his spots and staying out of the hitter's happy zones.
Without that control, Nola is ineffective, and sometimes to a point where he's not even usable.
The Phillies really need him to figure it out quickly. With so much uncertainty about Wheeler, the Phillies need at least one, if not two more reliable pitchers to emerge along with Cristopher Sanchez for October, just in case Wheeler won't be back.
All three of Nola, Suarez and Jesus Luzardo have proven, in the past, they can be good enough to be one of those guys once the chips are down. But this season, all three have also been blown up by the opposition more than they should.
It's crazy to say this on August 17th, but the Phillies second-most reliable starting pitcher right now is Taijuan Walker.
Imagine someone coming back from the future in March and saying they read that sentence. No one would have believed it. And yet, here we are.
It's a testament to how well Walker has pitched this season - especially as a starter. But it's also an indictment of the other three guys - mostly Nola and now Suarez - whose velocity is way down since the All-Star break.
Nola had some struggles late in 2023 that he needed to rectify, and was able to do so just in time for the playoffs. But even those weren't this bad - which makes one wonder if Nola can pull that rabbit out of his hat a second time in three years.
He's slated to make his next start against these same Nationals next weekend, albeit in Philadelphia.
We should all have a much better grip on what to make of him after that one.
