Apr 5, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola (27) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fourth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images Bill Streicher
Prior to this season, On Pattison pointed out the recent struggles that Aaron Nola has had in odd years. Over the last four even-year campaigns — which includes the 60-game season of 2020 — Nola has a 3.07 ERA. During his last three odd-year seasons, Nola has a 4.31 ERA.
It's one of those trends in sports that's more of a coincidence than anything. There's not an actual reason why Nola would be a significantly worse pitcher in odd years than even ones. But not everything in sports has to make sense.
We may not know the why in terms of what's caused Nola to struggle in odd years, but there is something to point to in terms of an area where he's been significantly worse every other season — home runs allowed. Over the last four even years, Nola has given up 75 home runs. That's less than the 85 home runs Nola has surrendered over the last three odd years, even when you include the 30 that the veteran right gave up in 2024, the most recent even year.
Through two games in the latest odd year, Nola has been tagged for four home runs. A three-run shot by Josh Bell and two-run homer by Nathaniel Lowe wrecked what at times was a dazzling first start of the season for Nola last Saturday at Nationals Park. Today, Nola gave up a two-run home run to Kiké Hernández and then a solo shot to Michael Conforto. The location on the second home run — which came off of a mid-80s cutter — was, well, not ideal:
Aaron Nola has given up four home runs over his first two starts. Location on this pitch to Michael Conforto was bad pic.twitter.com/Pyx7XD9CA0
In a vacuum, limiting the loaded Dodgers lineup to seven hits and three runs over six innings isn't a bad start. Heck, by the book, it was a quality start. But it's not a vacuum, and the long ball continues to haunt Nola.
What does he think he can do to limit home runs?
"I don't know, I mean I keep looking in on it but three of them this year have been first pitch," Nola said postgame. "They jumped me first pitch. I just need to throw a little bit better pitches."
Aaron Nola on what he can do to potentially limit home runs
(Via @TimKellySports) pic.twitter.com/O24BifjBTP
Despite ultimately giving up five runs against the Nationals last Saturday, Nola felt like his stuff was mostly good in his first outing of the season. He didn't feel that same way today.
"Grinded through it," Nola said of his second start of the season. "Kiké hit a pretty big homer right there to go up 2-0 in the second. Other than that, the ball was up today. [I] struggled to get the fastball down in the zone, especially on my fourseam. And my curveball was my pitch today. They took some good pitches. I made some good pitches when I needed to with some guys on base, but other than that, I was just kind of off today."
Nola is going to give up home runs, although it can't be two a game. He's traditionally said that while he would prefer not to give up home runs at all, solo ones are a lot easier to swallow than ones that bring in multiple runs. But only one of the four home runs he's given up to this point has been a solo shot. Clearly, he needs to limit the amount of multi-run homers he allows, and perhaps occasionally being out of the zone a bit more frequently might be a good adjustment for him to make.
In the end, though, it's hard to get too worked up about a pair of starts from the longest-tenured player on the team. Yes, the odd year thing looms over him. But even in all three of his most recent odd-year seasons, he's managed to log more than 180 innings. Even if you get Nola's floor there still is value, especially if Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez are pitching at a high level and both Ranger Suárez and Andrew Painter are going to join the rotation at some point. History tells us that as the weather warms up, Nola is going to have some really good outings. And at the very least, he'll eat innings as well as any starter in the sport.
