Sep 8, 2024; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves pitcher Chris Sale (51) pitches the ball against Toronto Blue Jays during first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images
Atlanta Braves fans opened the day hoping that Chris Sale wouldn't have to pitch the second game of their doubleheader against the New York Mets. But this isn't what they envisioned.
After losing an instant classic 8-7 in Game 1 of Monday's doubleheader against the Mets, the belief was that the Braves would turn to Sale — the NL Cy Young Award front-runner — in Game 2, needing a win to get into the postseason.
Instead, Sale was scratched with back spasms. Grant Holmes is making just his seventh start of the season, and doing it in a win-or-go-home game for the Braves.
Mark Bowman of MLB.com has the details on Sale's back:
Sale first felt the back discomfort during the second inning of his start in Cincinnati. That’s when his velo dropped below 90 mph. He kept thinking he could pitch until the discomfort worsened last night.
— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) September 30, 2024
For those who think that the strategy here is to save Sale for Game 1 of the NLDS tomorrow, well that game won't happen if the Braves don't win this evening at Truist Park. If the Braves lose without Sale on the mound tonight, they will be eliminated from the postseason, and the Arizona Diamondbacks will get in as the final Wild Card representative in the NL.
What's more likely is the Braves have been aware of Sale's back issues for some time now, and were hoping to get to the postseason without having to use the eight-time All-Star. He hasn't pitched since Sept. 19, which is peculiar. But eventually, something was going to have to give, whether it was in Game 162 and Game 1 of the NLWCS. Alex Anthopoulos "could not say" whether Sale would be available to pitch in Game 1 of a postseason series Tuesday if the Braves get there, per Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
From the Phillies perspective, this could eventually alter who they see in the NLDS. We'll see how the second game between the Mets and Braves pans out. But there had been some thought that if Sale laid in egg in the win-or-go-home situation that it would open up the door for Zack Wheeler to win the NL Cy Young. So what now?
If Sale had gotten crushed in a game that's being nationally televised, it may have changed the complexion of the race. But Sale not making another start actually assures that he's going to win the pitching triple crown in the NL, as he leads the senior circuit in wins (18), ERA (2.38) and strikeouts (225). Wheeler was more of a workhorse, but Sale does top him in most categories.
Sale: 18-3, 177 2/3 innings pitched, 2.38 ERA, 174 ERA+, 2.09 FIP, 225 strikeouts, 6.4 WAR (FanGraphs), 18 quality starts, 1.013 WHIP, 0.5 HR/9, 7.1 H/9, 11.3 SO/9
Wheeler: 16-7, 200 innings pitched, 2.57 ERA, 158 ERA+, 3.13 FIP, 224 strikeouts, 5.4 WAR (FanGraphs), 26 quality starts, 0.955 WHIP, 0.9 HR/9, 6.3 H/9, 10.1 SO/9
The guess here is that there are very few, if any, voters who will change their pick based on Sale not taking the ball Monday. Wheeler has had a Cy Young-caliber season, but Sale has been so dominant that he's probably still going to win the award.
