Jun 11, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports Paul Rutherford
The Phillies PR staff sent out a release after Sunday's regular-season finale touting the NL Cy Young Award case of ace Zack Wheeler.
This isn't the first time the Phillies have sent out releases like this, as they've previously done so for Hall of Fame candidates with ties to the organization such as Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu. It is interesting to note how directly they go at the perceived front-runner, Chris Sale:
If you were tasked with trying to make the best argument for Wheeler, basing his case on him being more of a workhorse than Sale is probably the best way to go. Sale may start in Game 2 of Monday's doubleheader between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets, but Wheeler does have a clear edge in some of the traditional stats you look at to determine how durable a starter has been.
Wheeler: 200 innings pitched, 26 quality starts
Sale: 177 2/3 innings pitched, 18 quality starts
The problem with this case is even if Sale doesn't pitch on Monday, Wheeler has thrown 22 1/3 more innings than him. That's not insignificant, but probably won't sway the race.
Wheeler finished a close second to Corbin Burnes, then with the Milwaukee Brewers, in 2021 NL Cy Young Award voting. That was despite Wheeler pitching an MLB-high 213 1/3 innings, nearly 50 more frames than the 167 Burnes finished the season with. You can — as Bryce Harper has — make the case that the voters got it wrong in 2021. But the voters sided with the dominance of Burnes, over the workload of Wheeler.
Well, Sale has probably been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this season. It's going to be hard for voters to overlook all the blank ink on Sale's Baseball Reference page, which indicate that he leads the NL in a specific category.
Depending upon how Monday plays out, Sale is on track to win the pitching Triple Crown in the senior circuit, as he leads the NL in wins, ERA and strikeouts. He also has the top ERA+, FIP, HR/9, SO/9, fWAR (FanGraphs' version of WAR) and bWAR (Baseball Reference's version of WAR) among all NL starters. Here's a comparison in those categories — and WHIP, which Wheeler led baseball in — between the top two contenders.
Wheeler: 16 wins, 2.57 ERA, 224 strikeouts, 159 ERA+, 3.13 FIP, 0.955 WHIP, 0.9 HR/9, 10.1 SO/9, 5.4 fWAR, 6.1 bWAR
Sale: 18 wins, 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts, 174 ERA+, 2.09 FIP, 1.013 WHIP, 0.5 HR/9, 11.4 SO/9, 6.4 fWAR, 6.2 bWAR
Schwellenbach will start the first game tomorrow. Sale will start the second game if necessary
If Sale does indeed get the ball in the second game of the doubleheader today between the Mets and Braves and gives up eight runs to cost the Braves a playoff spot, that might change things.
As is now, Wheeler unquestionably had a Cy Young-caliber season. Unfortunately for him, it probably will end with his second runner-up finish, because Sale was so dominant.
