Despite Loss, One Phillies Magic Number Still Drops to Three

If you were watching the Phillies lose instead of watching the Eagles lose, you probably heard about the Phillies magic number being five several times. 

Because they lost 6-2 to the Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Mets rallied to beat the Washington Nationals, that number to clinch the N.L. East is still five. 

So, what's up with the headline?

Don't worry, it's not clickbait. 

Yes, the magic number to win the N.L. East for the first time since 2011 remains at five, but thanks to the Atlanta Braves getting throttled by the Los Angeles Dodgers, the magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to three.

Wait, the Braves are 81-69. If they win out they are 93-69 AND they have the tiebreaker over the Phillies, so, since the Phillies have 90 wins, wouldn't the magic number need to be four?

Very astute observation by you, dear reader. But despite your sharp mathematical skills, it's not four. It's three. 

How?

Because you didn't take into account the schedule?

Huh?

Well, the Braves and Mets have a three-game series against one-another and somebody has to lose each game. As such, because the Mets are only one-game better than the Braves, if the Braves were to sweep them, the Phillies magic number to clinch a playoff spot would switch to the Mets (current magic number of five). And in that scenario (A Braves sweep) the Mets would have 71 losses, meaning the Phillies would only need to get to 92 wins to guarantee a playoff spot and not 93, to beat the Braves, ergo - the magic number is three. 

But what if the Braves don't sweep the Mets? 

 If the Mets beat the Braves once, the Braves fall to 70 losses, but then the Mets would also have 70 losses, meaning the Phillies only need to get to 93 wins to guarantee the playoff spot. If the Mets beat them twice, the Braves get to 71 losses and then the Phillies only need to get to 92. 

It's confusing. 

Cal Stevenson is barreled over by the confusion of this conversation.

Well, it's even more confusing when you find out that it can be over before it even gets to that Mets-Braves series next week, so the whole thing would be moot.

Ugh! Can you just tell me the magic numbers, please.

Sure. Here you go:

• To make the playoffs - 3 (Phillies wins and/or Mets or Braves losses)
• To win the N.L. East - 5 (Phillies wins and/or Mets losses)
• To get a bye to the NLDS - 10 (Phillies wins and/or Brewers losses - Note: The Phillies would pick up a plus-1 bonus for their magic number if they win one of their next two games as they would win the season series against Milwaukee, and thus the tiebreaker. Meaning the teams can end tied and the Phillies would finish ahead of them. So, as an example. If the Phillies win tonight with Zack Wheeler on the mound, the number drops from 10 to 7 - one for the win, one for the Brewers loss, and one for winning the tiebreaker outright),
• To get the No. 1 seed in the National League and top record in MLB - 11 (Phillies wins and/or Dodgers losses)

Got all that? Good. Because by the time you memorize it, it will change again on Tuesday.