Good evening, my fellow Americans.
Big issues divide our nation in 2024, and we have many important decisions to make this fall.
The most important decision, of course, is whether Aaron Nola or Cristopher Sanchez should follow Zack Wheeler in the Phillies' postseason rotation. (In a very likely scenario where the Phils host the first two games of the NLDS.)
Today, I'll debate the matter with Mr. Anthony SanFilippo, who asked if I had "brain worms" for suggesting Sanchez as the number two postseason starter in a group chat. Mr. SanFilippo advocates for more of the same, while I am the candidate for change!
Let's jump right in:
John Foley Makes the Case for Cristopher Sanchez
When a grass-roots campaign for Sanchez began bubbling up in my twitter replies, I was admittedly skeptical of the idea. Sure, Sanchez is having a fantastic season. But Nola is Nola, the ten-year Phillies veteran who will end up one of the franchise's all-time best in nearly every statistical category.
Out of respect for the great citizens of this nation, however, I took a look at the idea. And it's now an official part of my platform. Consider:
1) Game two of the 2024 NLDS will likely be played in Citizens Bank Park, while game three will likely be played on the road. Sanchez has proven to be a much better pitcher at home.
Cristopher Sanchez in 15 home starts this season: 7-3, 2.11 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 5.87 K/BB ratio. Opposing hitters are batting .220/.251/.281 against him (.533 OPS).
Cristopher Sanchez in 13 road starts this season: 3-6, 5.13 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 2.14 K/BB ratio. Opposing hitters are batting .315/.363/.452 against him (.815 OPS).
This isn't a short-term trend. Over Sanchez's entire career, he has a 3.12 ERA and 1.06 WHIP at home while sporting a 4.77 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road.
A question for you, patriots: Do you want Home Sanchez and his sparkling numbers starting game two, or do you want Road Sanchez and his 5.13 ERA starting game three?
2) Breaking up Wheeler and Nola in the rotation makes sense.
Wheeler and Nola are two absolute horses. Nola is second in the National League in innings pitched with 177, and Wheeler is third with 173.2.
They're two of the rare pitchers in modern major league baseball who routinely pitch deep into games and preserve the bullpen.
Wouldn't it make sense, then, to split up these two horses to avoid taxing the Phillies' best bullpen arms? The team's 'pen is, overall, a strength. But there's a limited number of guys who can be relied upon in high-leverage situations. And every postseason appearance can probably be considered a high-leverage situation.
Odds are, more relief pitchers will be used in a Sanchez start (or a Ranger Suarez start) than in a Wheeler/Nola game. Sanchez in game two could, in theory, sandwich a bullpen-heavy game in between two games where the starter goes deep.
Additionally, there's a school of thought that says it's best to give opposing batters different looks in a series in terms of RHP/LHP. Utilizing Sanchez, a lefty, in game two would split up the two righthanders.
3) Sanchez may just be flat-out better than Nola this season.
All other considerations aside, take a look at these two players.
Player A: 28 starts, 165 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 0.4 HR/9
Player B: 29 starts, 177 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1.3 HR/9
Player A is Sanchez. Player B is Nola. Be honest with yourself... Is it easier to imagine Sanchez or Nola serving up a three-run first-inning home run that sucks the air out of CBP?
424-foot @MoneyyyMikeee homer off Aaron Nola at The Bank 😳 pic.twitter.com/kjMucquh4v
In summary and conclusion, KNIBB HIGH FOOTBALL RULES! Vote Foley.
Anthony SanFilippo Makes the Case for Aaron Nola
How quickly John forgets things. I'm calling him Forgetful Foley. Forgetfully Foley. His arguments on this site are fake news. We need to make On Pattison great again.
And to do that we have to point out how insane it is to NOT start Nola in Game 2 of the NLDS.
I know the rallying cry is "We will not go back" but those who ignore history are doomed... or something like that.
Nola has pitched in four games in either the Wild Card Round or in an NLDS. As a refresher, his numbers in those:
4-0; 0.71 ERA, 24 K in 25 1/3 innings.
Oh... and did I mention no home runs?
And, it should be pointed out,
When it comes down to brass tacks, experience matters.
Aaron Nola in the Playoffs so far
18.2 IP
0.96 ERA
19 Ks
2 BB
GIVE AARON NOLA A BLANK CHECK
THIS MAN HAS EARNED HIS PAYDAY THIS OFFSEASON
pic.twitter.com/w2g2hQysgQ
Sanchez has been great this year, but this whole home/road thing is just a thing an anomaly.
It's a talking point. It's something for media and fans to chew on and discuss. It's quite low on the priority list for decision makers.
And, if we want to really get serious about it for a second, his numbers on the road are inflated by two bad starts - one in Chicago on the 4th of July and one in Arizona on August 11th.
Take those two starts away and his other 11 on the road result in a 3.72 ERA - the same as his career total.
But if you want track record, there isn't much of one. He started Game 4 of the NLCS and lasted 11 batters. Yeah, Craig Kimbrel ultimately cost the Phillies that game, but they could have used a little more out of Sanchez and not had to rely on seven relievers.
Secondly, baseball in October is a lot different than baseball in the regular season. The notion of splitting up Wheeler and Nola to help the bullpen is faulty logic. Why?
There's an off day between Game 2 and 3.
As such, if we're presuming both Wheeler and Nola pitch deep into games, the bullpen will be pretty fresh and have a day off to boot before getting to games where they might be needed more.
Also, let's imagine that the NLDS needs to go five games, meaning Wheeler would have to pitch twice. Don't you want your other horse throwing Game 1 of the NLCS? Not to mention, if you go five games in the NLDS, don't you want the possible final three games of the NLCS to lineup with your three most-trusted big game pitchers? Keeping Nola in the No. 2 spot lines up Games 5, 6, and 7 of the NLCS to be Nola, Suarez, Wheeler.
Going with Sanchez, in the No. 2 spot means that you run the risk of the pitcher you signed to a 7-year, $172 million contract last offseason, not pitching in a series deciding game, either on the home or on the road. That's crazy.
Thirdly, as for this notion that Sanchez is better than Nola, just because Nola has a bigger home run rate is also cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs. Does Nola give up more homers, sure. But he gives up far fewer base hits. So, the odds are that the homer Nola would give up that would suck the life out of the building would be of the three-run variety is really hyperbolic. Any pitcher can give up a three-run homer.
In fact, in 2024, you know how many homers Nola has given up that score three or more runs?
One.
Know how many Sanchez has given up?
Two.
Finally, I guess there was no room on this debate stage for an argument for Suarez? Are we beholden to the two-party system? There's a better argument for Suarez to start Game 2 than Sanchez.
And really, the debate should be, who starts Game 3. Because I think that's a very real debate.
But, considering the third party here is voiceless, much like in real life, I'll gladly accept the support of his people.
Vote SanFilippo.
