A wise man once coined the term, The Angry Bottalico Game. Defined thusly:
This team doesn’t hit. It’s just unacceptable. They’re taking pitches down the middle, swinging at balls… there are no good at-bats, no accountability. I’m baffled, Michael, really, I am. The pitchers are doing their jobs. They’re throwing whatever [the catcher] puts down. But this team doesn’t hit. I don’t see how it’s ever going to get better. I don’t see it, Michael. I don’t see it.
Last night, for much of the game, the Phillies didn’t hit. But it wasn't the lineup that had Bottalico's ire.
While he and Ben Davis rightfully keyed in on Bryce Harper not busting it out of the box - a sin akin to chemical warfare for baseball pundits - Ricky Bo and Ben spent an alarming amount of time shoveling dirt on Johan Rojas for almost-but-not-quite making the catch of the year.
Behold, anger:
Mind blowing how upset Ricky Bottalico and Ben Davis were that Johan Rojas didn’t make the catch of the year. pic.twitter.com/Uqg06FlcgV
Bottalico: "That ball is not going out of the ballpark... your first shot is to go all the way to the wall, turn around and find the ball... he didn't know where he was"
Davis: "That ball is in the air for an awfully long time, you want to get to a spot... but I agree with Ricky 100%, this ball is not going to go out of the ballpark, I don't know why he didn't jump up and catch it just flat-out... it was a very catchable ball"
OK, so a few takeaways, per the Heads Talking:
1) Rojas should have got to the fence first
2) Why jump tho?
3) SHOWBOAT! SHAME! SHAME! SHAME!
Twitter largely shared the sentiment I shared with my wife, which was “wtf guys?” 
First of all, some subjective thoughts: That’s a top 5 play of the year if he makes the catch. Game saver, at the wall, leaping.
While you can occasionally get mad at Rojas for showboating, this isn't the play do it on. He was tracking a ball that probably traveled more than it should have and was careening toward the absolute toughest part of the ballpark. So tough, in fact, that they gave it the name MONTY’S ANGLE™, as if the late, great David Montgomery himself invented obtuse angles. Not even Euclid and his ancient Greek cohorts could have cooked up such waggish fare.
As such, while heading into this mathematical den of horrors, Rojas quickly computed that A2 + B2 was bout to equal a dead CF if he didn’t leave his feet to kill his momentum before face-planting into the wall or toppling over it— a fate which would have forced the Phils to brand Rojas’ Corpse in the corner, sort of killing the whole vibe of Monty’s Angle.
Anyway, HE CAUGHT THE BALL and lived to tell about it. Unfortunately, his momentum took his arm over the wall, and the grip at the end of his 78-inch glove wasn’t strong enough to hang on.
Imagine thinking Rojas’ jump here was unnecessary:
His chalkline was already being drawn by shadow.
As to whether the ball would have gone over the fence, it’s really tough to tell.
Probably not?
If you watch the video at .25 speed, it looks like the momentum of the ball flexed his glove into what would have been the corner next to the 409 sign, or Rowand’s Padding™:
What a wild sequence in the top of the 9th in Phillies-Rays. For a second, it looked like Johan Rojas made a spectacular catch to rob a Rays home run. But then his glove hit the wall and the ball fell out on the home run side of the fence to tie the game 1-1. pic.twitter.com/wAwLEh0K3Q
The whole thing was nuts. So nuts, in fact, that it basically broke MLB’s Statcast Gameday 3D representation:
The MLB Statcast view from Johan Rojas' near catch is OUTSTANDING.#phillies pic.twitter.com/8rrWA8jjZn
I’ll have what he’s having.
And since we’re now a math site around here, let’s dig further into the Statcast metrics.
Inexplicably, as of posting this, they do NOT have this play logged for Rojas as a fielder, because technically he didn’t factor in the scoring decision for the play (not an out, not an error).
But we do have numbers.
Launch Angle: 28*
Exit Velo: 107 mph
Distance Traveled: 414 ft (which is somehow more than the 409 on the wall)
Hang Time:
Sorry, wrong Hang Time. 5.4 seconds.
Statcast often serves up catch probabilities for plays, but not for this one. And they don’t make their formula known, because there are so many variables, most notably for how far the fielder traveled and the dimensions of different parks. Never mind the increased difficulty score of - 90s kids cartoon bad guy lair voice - MONTY’S ANGLE.
But we can back into some estimations.
1) Statcast says the expected batting average on such balls is .950, or 95%. That doesn’t directly correlate to catch probability (ie not 5%), but in almost all cases, it’s a hit. And in 20 out of 30 ballparks, including Citizen’s Bank Park, it’s a home run.
Now was it actually 414 feet? Maybe. I’m guessing the system had trouble measuring things what with Rojas, his arm, and giant ass glove hiding the ball and transporting it into the green stuff.
2) Rojas plays shallower, on average, than most CFs in the league, at a distance of around 325 feet. He was shaded toward left before the pitch, but given his average depth, the 414-foot* distance the ball was hit, and the fact that he to range more to his left, we can figure he ran about 90-105 feet, under a hang time of 5.4 seconds.
That would typically yield a catch probability of around 40%-60%. Again - and I stress - not factoring in MOOOOOONNNNNNTY’S ANGLLLLLLLE, and the time and score.
catch probabilities at 5.4 seconds
In other words, by all counts, had he come down with the ball, it would have been a quantifiably good catch.
Back to Ricky and Ben.
I’m guessing they were very much applauding Rojas for a similar ostensibly unnecessary jump— when he made the bases loaded catch against Ronald Acuna Jr. in Game 4 of the NLDS. That one was even farther from the wall, by the way (longer run, too, to be fair).
Part of Rojas’ issue is that he covers so much ground that he usually overruns the ball and is forced to get awkward at the point of catch.
If he were most other centerfielders last night, he would have had to leap and make an ice cream cone style catch. If he were Aaron Rowand, he’d have a broken face.
In this case, the jump was necessary to soften the blow of maybe crashing into the wall. Expecting him to get to the wall first, look up, and make a casual two-handed catch here, as Bottalico and Davis suggested from the comfort of Michael Barkann’s blue-rimmed gaze, is ridiculous.
