Sep 6, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) delivers a pitch against the Miami Marlins during the second inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
The quality start in baseball has always ruffled fan feathers. It's understandable as to why, as its parameters aren't exactly a high bar.
Throwing six innings and allowing three earned runs equates to a 4.50ERA, which is pretty much league average, if not a touch below, depending on the season.
But it's also a hollow argument when it's thrown at you by critics because that's the bare minimum of a quality start. Not all quality starts are created equal. A quality start can also be a complete game shutout, so to simply dismiss the quality start as a measurable statistic is also foolish.
And in reality, the name itself is fair. It's not like saying a six-inning start where you allow three earned runs is an excellent start, or a superior start, or a fantastic start. No, it's just "quality." Meaning it gives your team at least six innings, is not taxing your bullpen, and it's likely a good enough start to keep your team in the game and give them a chance to win (unless there were some unearned runs thanks to errors that are also tacked on.)
Still, it's admittedly a stat that will always need more context.
Which is why when you look at them more closely, and you provide that nuance, it can give you a better picture as to who should be the frontrunner in the N.L. Cy Young Award race.
And that should clearly be Zack Wheeler.
I know, that's not what the oddsmakers and all the pundits are saying. They are putting Atlanta's Chris Sale ahead of the Phillies ace.
Now, Sale is having an incredible year. It's a hell of a story for a guy who has dealt with so many injuries in recent seasons to have such a resurgence at age 35. He's already thrown 160 innings and didn't throw that many in the four previous seasons combined.
Chris Sale
Has now thrown more innings this year than he did in the last 4 years combined for the Red Sox
Last 5 years
w/ATL - 1 year - 153.2 iP
w/BOS - 4 years - 151.0 IP
And he’s going to win the Cy Young
so there’s that pic.twitter.com/AG8nmNbtQf
He's 16-3 with a 2.46 ERA and 206 strikeouts. He leads the league in each of those categories. The Braves are 19-7 when he starts (.731 winning percentage) and 58-57 when he doesn't (.504 winning percentage). He's also worth 6.1 WAR (according to Fangraphs) which is tops in the N.L. It's a heck of a resume.
But while looking at these traditional metrics tells you one thing, let's look at him compared to Wheeler in some other ways that should be more meaningful overall.
To do that, let's first revisit the quality start statistic and see if we can modify it a bit to make it a more meaningful measure of how good a pitcher has been in a given season.
Here's a look at the leaderboard for quality starts in the National League
Now, it's very likely that all three finalists won't come from this list. In fact, Aside from Wheeler and Sale, it's truly just a race for third place in the voting. I can just as easily make an argument for Webb, or Nola, or Imanaga as I could for Hunter Greene, Paul Skenes or even Braves closer Raisel Iglesias. In the end, that doesn't matter. It's a two-horse race.
Zack Wheeler is bringing the heat tonight! 🔥
(Via: @PitchingNinja)
pic.twitter.com/sZckQ9mp87
Now, what's most impressive about Wheeler and Sale in the quality start category is that of their quality starts exactly zero of them have been six innings and three earned runs. That means every one of their quality starts have been more than just quality. They've bordered on dominant.
They've each had one start that was seven innings long with three earned runs. All the rest were two earned runs or fewer. We're talking elite stuff here. So, rather than call these quality starts, let's call them Super Quality Starts (SQS). The criteria for an SQS would be at least six innings and for the ERA to be under 4.00 for that start.
With that in mind, the top four remain the same, but the order changes slightly.
Compare the number of SQS relative to the total number of starts for each pitcher and see the percentage of starts that were "Super Quality."
Almost 8 of every 10 starts by Wheeler have been SQS vs. a little more than 6-of-10 for Sale.
Now, let's take it a step further and look at this by percentage of innings that have come in a SQS vs. a non-SQS. It's no surprise that Wheeler's well ahead of the pack here too.
(Note: Just to be clear here, these are the only four pitchers in the National League with at least 100 innings thrown in SQS, which is why we're not looking at anyone else. Frankly, none of them would be competitive with these four. The guy with the next most SQS after these four is Washington's Jake Irvin. Yeah. That's how far and away better these guys are.)
Next, how many of these SQS have directly led to victories for their team:
1. Zack Wheeler 15
2. Aaron Nola 14
3. Chris Sale 12
4. Logan Webb 11
Finally, let's look at the quality of opposition in these SQS for each guy. As such, here is the breakdown of the number of SQS for each guy against teams with a winning record as of today.
1. Aaron Nola - 9-of-15 (60%)
2. Logan Webb - 10-of-17 (59%)
3. Zack Wheeler - 12-of-22 (55%)
4. Chris Sale - 6-of-16 (38%)
It's the one category within this SQS measurement that Wheeler doesn't come in first, but he's still doubled the number of SQS against winning teams compared to Sale, and again, like in the other rankings above, is 17% better than him.
Now, this isn't the be all end all. It shouldn't be the lone thing you look at when determining who is more deserving, but it should be a factor. As should some other stats.
Even if you incorporate the non-SQS starts for both guys, (six for Wheeler, 10 for Sale) Wheeler has a better overall WHIP (0.962) than Sale (1.015). Wheeler's WHIP, which is the best measure of allowing runners to reach base, is the best in the National League.
Phillies vs Marlins 9/6/24 BEST PLAYS I Zack Wheeler in CRUISE CONTROL 🔥
Zack Wheeler is now 14-6 with a 2.59 ERA in 28 starts this season, he's got a WHIP of 0.96 and opponents are hitting .193 against him#Phillies #RingTheBell #ZackWheeler pic.twitter.com/LZK7IfggA3
Again, taking in the entire season (both good starts and bad starts) Wheeler's Win Probability Added is an N.L.-best 3.71 compared to Sale who is in second at 3.58. Additionally, all batters this season are hitting .218 against Sale. Against Wheeler - just .197.
And lastly, the Cy Young race is also about how you finish. Both guys have four more starts on the docket, but if we're looking at how they've pitched since August 1, once again, Wheeler is outpacing Sale.
Wheeler: 45IP, 30H, 9R, 8ER, 6BB, 51K, 1.60ERA, 0.800WHIP, Batters against: .184/.218/.288, .506OPS, .248 BABIP
Sale: 37 2/3IP, 40H, 8R, 7ER, 6BB, 51K, 1.67ERA, 1.221WHIP, Batters against: .270/.299./.338, .637OPS, .412 BABIP
Sale still has the nasty strikeout stuff, so he generates more swing and miss, but if you look at the BABP (batting average on balls in play) Wheeler is certainly inducing more weak contact, which is why he's cruising through his starts while Sale is grinding at the end of a long season.
In short, both candidates are deserving of high praise. But only one can win the Cy Young. If you just want to look at standard statistics, Sale has the edge. But do a deeper dive and look into what these guys are actually doing and you'll see with a little more than 20 games to go, it really should be Wheeler's award to lose.
