Jun 24, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski prior to the game against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports John Geliebter
Throughout the 2024 season, the Phillies have gone out of their way to keep the bigger picture in mind. They've talked repeatedly of wanting to preserve the bullpen for the postseason. On days where J.T. Realmuto has been off, Rob Thomson has almost always elected not to use him as a pinch hitter, even when he could have potentially changed the outcome of a game. October has always been the focus for the Phillies.
But did that approach perhaps go too far, and contribute to the struggles of the team after the All-Star Break?
Jayson Stark of The Athletic recently penned a story on whether a second-half lull has historically indicated that teams won't go on deep postseason runs. It's a wide-ranging story that is worth your time, because it pertains to way more than just the 2024 Phillies.
For our purposes, though, these two paragraphs of the piece really stood out.
"Most of all, though, Dombrowski wondered if maybe they’d all gotten too comfortable after such a dominant first half," Stark wrote. "The Phillies had such a big lead by the middle of June, they seemed to start prioritizing what they could do to keep their core healthy for October. So Dombrowski admits he has asked himself if that possibly sent the wrong message.
“I don’t know,” Dombrowski told Stark. “Maybe we set the tempo somewhere. Maybe we started looking at the long term rather than the short term. But I’m not sure about that."
It's important to point out that this still comes down to production. The biggest reason that the Phillies were 12-20 in their first 32 games after the All-Star Break is because Bryce Harper and Trea Turner were struggling offensively, while Taijuan Walker was continuously getting shelled on the mound and Ranger Suárez was hurt.
At the same time, there is something to be said for the message sent by the organization. There's a balance to be struck between going balls-to-the-wall every day and focusing solely on October.
The 2023 Atlanta Braves are an example of what can happen when you focus too much on a special regular season. A year ago, Ronald Acuña Jr. stole 73 bases, Matt Olson launched a franchise-record 54 home runs and the Braves looked unstoppable during a regular season where they won 104 games. But after a first-round bye, they were eliminated by the Phillies — winners of a more modest 90 games during the regular season — in the NLDS.
Not only did the Braves going pedal-the-metal in the regular season maybe leave them with not enough gas for the postseason, but it's hard to think it didn't contribute in some way to an injury-riddled 2024. Acuña suffered a season-ending torn left ACL in late May. That was after ace Spencer Strider had a season-ending internal brace procedure on his right elbow in mid-April. Olson has had something of a hangover this year after finishing fourth in a loaded NL MVP race last season, as had Austin Riley before suffering a right hand fracture last month.
But did the Phillies maybe swing too far in the other direction after they entered July with a 55-29 record? That's possible. Since starting 12-20 in the second half, the Phillies have gone 10-2, winning series over the Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros and Braves, all teams in playoff position. Evidently if things were on cruise control for a little while, they no longer are.
What's worth considering here, though, is that the Phillies are not a young team. Zack Wheeler is 34. J.T. Realmuto is 33. Nick Castellanos is 32. Bryce Harper is 31. Trea Turner is 31. Kyle Schwarber is 31. Aaron Nola is 31. Might the Phillies have gotten a little too comfortable after a red-hot start and began to look forward to October too much? Maybe, but this is an older team that's coming off two consecutive deep playoff runs and expecting another. You can't treat every game of a 162-game season like you're playing in the World Series.
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One other observation from covering the team: Johan Rojas was called up in mid-July last year and came with a spark. Not only did he immediately provide world-class defense in center field, but there was a youthful energy he brought with him that rubbed off on other guys during the dog days of summer. Two years ago, the Phillies acquired Brandon Marsh in early August. Marsh not only improved the outfield, but he became a glue guy in the clubhouse that was hungry to prove that a disappointing start to his career with the Los Angeles Angels wouldn't define him. The Phillies didn't have that type of player join them midseason this year. They also weren't digging themselves out of an early hole. All of that is worth considering when trying to evaluate why the team went 10-14 in July.
Ultimately, this will be a pass/fail season for the Phillies, with the results in October determining how 2024 is remembered. But there's little doubt that the 2024 Phillies will be studied one way or another, because they are a team that's taken the opposite approach of the Braves a year ago.
