Aug 27, 2007; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Mets mascot, Mr. Met and the Philadelphia Phillies mascot, the Phillie Phanatic on the field between innings promoting the Mascot Hall of Fame at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA. The Phillies defeated the Mets 9-2. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports Copyright © 2007 Howard Smith
The Mets defeated the Brewers in Milwaukee on Tuesday night, 8-4. Winning game one of their best-of three series makes them a prohibitive favorite to emerge from the wild card series as the Phillies' NLDS opponent.
Since the current wild card series format was implemented, teams winning the first game won the series 14 of 16 times. Ten teams have won game one on the road like the Mets, and eight of them won the series. Seven of those eight swept the series.
THE METS SCORED FIVE IN THE FIFTH TO TAKE GAME 1 VS. THE BREWERS 😤 pic.twitter.com/XHZqaV2QgX
So if historical trends hold, and we see the first-ever postseason series between the Phils and Mets, should Phillies fans feel confident?
Here's a look at the 13 games the teams played against each other in the 2024 regular season. The Phillies narrowly won the season series, seven games to six.
In mid-May, the Phillies played two games in New York immediately before playing two more at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies won three of four.
- The Phillies won the first game in ten innings, 5-4. Cristopher Sanchez had a mediocre start while Sean Manaea held the Phils to one run over six innings. But the Phillies' bullpen shut the Mets down late in the game. Bryson Stott hit a home run to lead off a two-run ninth that tied the game, and a Stott sac fly in the tenth proved to be the game winner.
- The Phils won again the next night, 4-0. Aaron Nola pitched a complete game shutout, allowing four hits, striking out eight, and walking none.
- When the series shifted to Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies won again, 10-5. Ranger Suarez improved to 8-0 after allowing two runs (both unearned) in five innings. Mets starter Joey Lucchesi served up a Bryce Harper home run and didn't make it through the fifth inning.
- It took eleven innings, but the Mets won the fourth game, 6-5. Phillies starter Taijuan Walker didn't make it out of the fourth.
It feels like the two-game London Series took place years ago, but it actually took place in early June.
Philly Phanatic just showed up to protect Buckingham pic.twitter.com/SQdflmSzmb
- The Phillies won game one, 7-2. Manaea struggled against the Phils' lineup this time, allowing six runs and seven hits in 3.2 innings, including home runs from Harper and Whit Merrifield. (Yes, seriously, Whit Merrifield.) Ranger Suarez picked up the win.
- The next day, Taijuan Walker started against the Mets for the second time, and the Mets won for the second time. Walker actually pitched reasonably well, and the Phillies built a 3-0 lead against Mets starter Jose Quintana. But Gregory Soto and Jose Alvarado were knocked around a bit in the 6-5 loss.
The Phillies took two of three at Citizens Bank Park.
- The Mets won the first game, 11-3. This was one of those games where Nola was cruising, then suddenly imploded. He allowed six runs, all in the fifth inning. Jose Quintana, meanwhile, held the Phillies scoreless over seven.
- Bryce Harper mashed two home runs in the second game, both off of Mets starter Luis Severino. The Phillies won, 6-4, behind starter Kolby Allard.
- In the series finale, Cristopher Sanchez allowed one run over seven innings in a 2-1 Phillies win. J.T. Realmuto hit a walk-off single in the ninth.
PHILS WIN BABY pic.twitter.com/gRbI8kKZHq
The Mets took three of four in the final regular season series between the two teams and, partly because of recency bias, this series has unnerved some Phillies fans.
- In the first game, Taijuan Walker made his return as the Phillies' fifth starter. You may recall that it didn't go well. Walker's line: 3.1 IP, 6 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 3 BB, 2 K. Phils lost, 10-6.
TROLLING 😈 pic.twitter.com/girDv7LHQo
- Cristopher Sanchez took the ball in game two, a 12-2 Phillies win. Alec Bohm went 4/5 with a home run. David Peterson took the loss for New York.
- The Mets won the third game 6-3, behind a strong outing from Manaea (7 IP, 3 R). Ranger Suarez had a solid start, but the Mets tagged Orion Kerkering for three runs in the seventh.
- The Mets won again in the season series finale, 2-1. Zack Wheeler allowed just two runs, but four Mets pitchers combined to shut the Phils ' offense down.
- The Phillies are probably not as good as they looked in May, when they were on pace for 110+ wins.
- The Mets are probably not as good as they looked in September, when they went 17-9 to crash the postseason party.
- Science tells us, however, that September is recent and May is not. It's reasonable to worry that the Mets are hot at the right time.
- On the other hand, Taijuan Walker will not start a game for the Phillies in the postseason. The Phillies won seven of ten games against the Mets when Walker wasn't the starter.
- If both teams play their best (a very big if), the Phillies are the more talented team and would win a five-game series.
In short, the Phillies would be favored in a Phils / Mets NLDS, but the Mets would be coming in on the heels of a red-hot September and a wild card victory in Milwaukee. It would make for a heck of a series. Two longtime division rivals squaring off in the postseason for the very first time would provide excellent theater.
The stakes would be high, nerves would be frazzled, hearts would be taxed. But it says here that the Phillies would win the series in five games.
Philadelphia-area therapists seeing the possibility of a Mets Phillies NLDS. pic.twitter.com/n6lCFHiBQo
