Aug 28, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies catcher Garrett Stubbs (21) reacts after lining out against the Houston Astros in the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports Kyle Ross
Friday, Nov. 22 is the non-tender deadline. The Phillies have some decisions to make.
The Phillies will surely tender contracts to five arbitration-eligible players —Ranger Suárez, Edmundo Sosa, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh. They'll still have to come to terms with all five, or go to arbitration. Just because you tender someone a contract doesn't mean you can't trade them, a reminder that might be particularly relevant for the Phillies this winter.
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Matt Gelb said on Phillies Therapy last week that reliever José Ruiz is also likely to be tendered a contract for 2025. Ruiz posted a 3.71 ERA in 52 appearances for the Phillies last season. Matt Swartz of MLB Trade Rumors projects Ruiz will make $1.2 million in his penultimate year of arbitration eligibility.
The two arbitration candidates in question for the Phillies are Garrett Stubbs and Austin Hays.
Stubbs, now 31, has been the primary backup to J.T. Realmuto the past three seasons. He's considered an excellent clubhouse presence, and is a world-class drag bunter. But since hitting .264 with an .812 OPS for the Phillies in 2022, Stubbs has hit .206 with a .558 OPS over the last two seasons.
As J.T. Realmuto enters his age-34 season, the Phillies will likely need more out of their backup catcher in 2025. Rafael Marchán was excellent over 17 games in Realmuto's absence this past summer, and given that he's out of minor league options, there's a very real chance he backs up Realmuto in 2025.
With that said, Marchán has quite the injury history, so there's something to be said for not putting all your eggs in that basket. The wisest move for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski might be to bring Stubbs to camp, and be certain that Marchán is healthy when it's time to break camp before declaring he'll be the backup catcher on Opening Day.
Garrett Stubbs might have a case of beer in his pockets
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Stubbs is projected to earn $1.2 million in his second-to-last year of arbitration. What the Phillies could do is reach a deal with Stubbs under that value. They could also work out a split contract, which gives him a certain amount of guarantees — let's say, $500,000 — and then allows him to get up to around $1.2 million if he's on the MLB roster.
It's worth pointing out that Stubbs does have a remaining minor league option, so there is a scenario where Marchán is the backup to Realmuto to open the season, while Stubbs is the starting catcher for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. It would be a bit of a bizarre scenario considering how present Stubbs has been with the Phillies for the past three years, but it can't be ruled out.
Meanwhile, Hays is projected to make $6.4 million in his final year of arbitration. There's almost no shot he'll make that amount in 2025.
Hays was acquired prior to the trade deadline by the Phillies, with the thought being that he could potentially seize the job in left field on a full-time basis. At a minimum, the former All-Star would be a lineup upgrade against left-handed pitching.
Ultimately, injuries wrecked what may prove to be a very brief tenure in red pinstripes for Hays. A left hamstring strain and kidney infection limited Hays to just 78 regular season at-bats after joining the Phillies, and he hit .256 with a .672 OPS over that small sample size.
‘Unlike Anything Else I’ve Really Dealt With’: Austin Hays Updates Rehab From Kidney Infection - @OnPattison https://t.co/j0TluuKcZL
Hays went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts in Game 3 of the NLDS, his lone start in the series against the New York Mets. Rob Thomson admitted after that game that Hays looked "rusty." Weston Wilson got the start over Hays in left field against a left-handed pitcher in José Quintana in Game 4.
Dombrowski said this about how the Hays pickup panned out in his year-end press conference.
“Well, we were very happy with the trades we made at the particular time,” Dombrowski said of his trade deadline moves. “I’ve been in this role before where sometimes you make moves and they turn out great. Other times you make moves and they don’t really turn out as well as you would like.
“…So we got Austin Hays, who we liked a great deal,” Dombrowski added. “Unfortunately, Austin Hays got hurt almost immediately. Got hurt and then he had a kidney infection. We really never saw a good version of Austin Hays. So if you judge it on that, that was not very good, didn’t work out well for us.”
He also added this note later, seemingly acknowledging that it wasn't a sure thing that Hays would be back with the Phillies in 2025.
“…We have Hays, of course, we’ll have to make a decision in that regard,” Dombrowski said.
The guess here is that Stubbs will still be in the Phillies organization on Saturday, even if he's not guaranteed a spot on the Opening Day roster. Hays may very well be non-tendered.
