Aug 11, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo (44) delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees during the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports Sam Navarro
The Phillies acquired LHP Jesús Luzardo in a rather stunning trade with the Miami Marlins Sunday morning. On Pattison broke down the ramifications of the trade in a separate piece.
Where do the Phillies stand in terms of luxury tax payroll with Luzardo's projected arbitration salary added in? We've done our best to project where the Phillies' current 40-man roster is at. This story will be updated throughout the offseason, and it should be noted that the Phillies will absolutely need more than these 40 players to get through a 162-game season.
Zack Wheeler: $42 million
Trea Turner: $27.27 million
Bryce Harper: $25.38 million
Aaron Nola: $24.57 million
J.T. Realmuto: $23.1 million
Nick Castellanos: $20 million
Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber will each make major salaries from the Phillies in 2025. (Bill Streicher/USA Today)Kyle Schwarber: $19.75 million
Taijuan Walker: $18 million
Max Kepler: $10 million
Jordan Romano: $8.5 million
Matt Strahm: $7.5 million
José Alvarado: $7.33 million
Cristopher Sánchez: $5.63 million
José Ruiz: $1.23 million
Total Guaranteed Salaries: $240.26 million
Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh are both arbitration eligible in 2025. (Bill Streicher/USA Today)Here's what MLB Trade Rumors' Matt Swartz projects each arbitration-eligible player we're expecting to be on the Opening Day roster will make.
Ranger Suárez: $8.9 million
Alec Bohm: $8.1 million
Jesús Luzardo: $6 million
Bryson Stott: $3.5 million
Brandon Marsh: $3 million
Edmundo Sosa: $2.5 million
Projected Arbitration Commitments: $32 million
Johan Rojas is not yet arbitration eligible. (Bill Streicher/USA Today)The following players are likely to be on the Opening Day roster, but don't yet have three years of service time. That means they aren't eligible for arbitration. According to Cots Baseball Contracts, this is the pay slate for pre-arb players based on their level of service time.
Zero MLB Service Time: $760,000 for full season, $62,000 prorated
Less Than 1 Year of MLB Service Time: $760,000 for full season, $123,900 prorated
1+ Years of MLB Service Time: $770,000 for full season, $186,000 prorated
2+ Years of MLB Service Time: $780,000 for full season, $248,000 prorated
Based off of that, here's how much each pre-arb player projected to be on the Opening Day roster for the Phillies is set to make.
Max Lazar (0.051 Service Time): $760,000
Kody Clemens (1.134 Service Time): $770,000
Rafael Marchán (2.006 Service Time): $780,000
Tanner Banks (2.092 Service Time): $780,000
Weston Wilson (0.113 Service Time): $760,000
Johan Rojas (1.080 Service Time): $770,000
Orion Kerkering (1.010 Service Time): $770,000
Projected Pre-Arb Commitments: $5.39 million
Obviously, other pre-arb players will inevitably be called up throughout the course of the season that have not yet been calculated. Each team also has $1,666,667 in pre-arbitration benefits that players with less than three years of service time can earn. We've added that to the calculation.
Other Pre-Arb Commitments: $1.67 million
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Garrett Stubbs is on the 40-man roster for the Phillies, but may not be on the Opening Day roster. (Bill Streicher/USA Today)Obviously, there's 14 players on the 40-man roster who aren't projected to open the season in the majors. That list includes everyone from Garrett Stubbs — who does have a remaining minor-league option — to prospects like Mick Abel. Their minor league salaries still count against the luxury tax threshold.
Some of them are difficult to calculate. According to Ronald Blum of The Associated Press, Stubbs signed a deal that will only pay him $450,000 if he's at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. It will pay him $925,000 if he's in the majors.
The Phillies obviously have a better idea of who internally they expect to be in the majors in 2025 at some point. So they surely have a larger number than the public, because they probably are already calculating player like Buddy Kennedy, Cal Stevenson and Michael Mercado, who aren't necessarily guaranteed to be on the Opening Day roster, but will probably be at some point.
No. 1 prospect Andrew Painter isn't on the 40-man roster yet, but almost certainly will be at some point in the summer.
So take this number with a grain of salt, it's definitely going to be higher.
Players On 40-Man Roster: $2.6 million
Whit Merrifield will be paid $1 million by the Phillies in 2025. (Gary A. Vasquez/USA Today)The Phillies signed Whit Merrifield to a one-year/$8 million deal last spring, but released him in July after he hit .199 in 137 at-bats. His deal included an $8 million option for 2025, which was declined when he was released. Still, the Phillies will owe Merrifield a $1 million buyout on that option in 2025.
Projected Declined Option Commitments: $1 million
Didi Gregorius is still being paid by the Phillies. (Jim Rassol/USA Today)Largely, the Phillies have avoided adding deferred money into contracts, something the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals have made a habit of doing.
However, the Phillies did include some deferred money in the two-year/$28 million deal they signed Didi Gregorius to after the 2021 season as the baseball world was dealing with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Gregorius will be paid $2 million by the Phillies in 2024, even though he hasn't played with the club since the summer of 2022. That full amount will count against the luxury tax threshold.
Projected Deferred Money Commitments: $2 million (This will be not be factored into the final equation, because it does count against the luxury tax threshold)
Bryce Harper and Trea Turner are two of the highest-paid players on the Phillies. (Jesse Johnson/USA Today)While the specifics are vague, Spotrac estimates that the Phillies have $17.5 million in player benefits on the books in 2025, which do count against the luxury tax threshold.
Total Luxury Tax Threshold Projection: $300.42 million
With the addition of Luzardo's projected arbitration number, the Phillies current 40-man roster is pushing up against the third surcharge, dubbed "the Steve Cohen tax." When you consider that the Phillies have to account for players who aren't currently on the 40-man roster or even in the organization at all that will inevitably be needed to get through a 162-game season, their internal number is likely well over the third surcharge.
First Surcharge (52% tax on all overages): $261 million
Second Surcharge (95% tax on all overages): $281 million
Third Surcharge (110% tax on all overages): $301 million
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